Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Carolina (+6.5) over LAS VEGAS

1-Star Best Bet – *Over 40 to 40.5

• Bryce Young had only a 19.4% success rate last week, making it the worst start of his career and the 4th-worst start by a quarterback since he came into the league. The Panthers have seen enough, and we will get Andy Dalton under center on Sunday.
• Young is averaging 4.0 yppp in his 18 starts and it was clear he could not operate an NFL offense. Dalton is averaging 5.9 yppp since he left Cincinnati in 2020 and he can run a functionable offense.
• Carolina’s offense has a 9.1% conversion rate on 3rd down which is the worst for a team through two weeks in the last 25 years. The Panthers are averaging a completely unsustainable -1.05 EPA/play on 3rd down. Even last year with Young they averaged -0.20 EPA/3rd down. Both numbers are bad but putting them back at the 2023 average would be an improvement by about 11 points per game.
• Las Vegas edge defender Malcolm Koonce ranked 11th in pass rushing efficiency last year but he is out to start the season and his backup Tyree Wilson is likely sidelined again.
• The Raiders have only a 21.2% pressure rate through two games (30th) and Dalton will be kept clean this week.
• Carolina RT Taylor Moton ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency and he will limit edge rusher Maxx Crosby, whose 8 pressures rank 16th.
• The Panthers spent over $150 million this offseason on guards and that investment is paying dividends as Carolina’s interior offensive line is responsible for a league-low 14% of the pressures.
• The Panthers also traded for WR Diontae Johnson in March, and he has a favorable matchup versus CB Jack Jones, who is preventing separation on just 23% of his opportunities (5th-worst).
• Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers is averaging 2.64 yards per route run (2nd). Gardner Minshew will look for the rookie as Carolina’s defense allowed a league-high 0.49 EPA/target to tight ends last season.
• I expect Dalton to get the Panthers back to their prior, which was a power rating about 5 points worse than average. Carolina are still likely the worst team in the NFL but they won’t be historically bad anymore.
• Panthers’ interior defender Derrick Brown is out and he’s worth a half point. However, Koonce is also out. This line sat at Raiders -4 all summer and the true number should not have Las Vegas installed as more than a 4.5-point favorite.
• Our model favors the Raiders by 4.4 points, with a predicted total of 43.3. points, and teams that start the season by failing to cover the spread by an average of more than 13 points in their first two games are 58-29-1 ATS in game 3.

Things should get better for Carolina with Dalton at quarterback and the Panthers are a 1-Star Best Bet at +5.5 points or more and a Strong Opinion at +5.