Game Analysis
Lean – ATLANTA (-3/-2.5) vs Dallas
The Falcons are 4-4 despite being one of only 3 teams in the league with a net yppl above +1.0. Atlanta’s offense ranks 2nd in yppl but the inability to convert short yardage situations has been a problem. The Falcons went 4 of 12 on 3rd down against Carolina last week converting just 2 of 7 opportunities with only one yard to gain for a first down. I expect an offense with the Falcons quality to perform better in short yardage situations moving forward.
Ezekiel Elliott leads the league’s best rushing attack despite all the distractions this season. The Cowboys have rushed for more than 100 yards in every game since week 3, where they rushed for 99 yards against Arizona, and the only team to shut down their ground game was Denver in week 2 when they fell behind early and finished the game with just 14 rushing attempts. The Falcons allow 4.2 ypr (20th) and I expect Elliott to continue his dominance in this game.
Dallas is a good team but Atlanta actually projects as the better team when factoring out the variance and my ratings favor the Falcons by 3 ½ points. I do expect Atlanta to start playing closer to their talent level and the Falcons do apply to a 98-43-1 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams with a horrible spread record against teams with a good spread mark – as is the case with these teams. I’ll lean with Atlanta at -3 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
40.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.3%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.8%
13.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.5%
37.8%
-
NYPP
6.9
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.1
23.4
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.4%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.2%
44.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.8
63.5
-
Early Down Succ
52.6%
50.3%
-
Succ Rate
50.6%
48.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.8%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
27.6
-
Run Ratio
48.4%
36.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
24.6
-
Game Control
3.8
-3.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.4
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.7%
44.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.5%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.9%
30.4%
-
NYPP
7.4
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.3
27.9
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.8%
23.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.3%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.8%
33.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
60.6
64.3
-
Early Down Succ
52.6%
47.2%
-
Succ Rate
48.8%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.6%
32.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
29.3
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
23.5
29.2
-
Game Control
1.8
-1.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYG |
19 – 3 W |
9.1 |
48.7% /
48.8% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
54.8% /
23.1% |
19.4% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
2.8 |
70 /
54 |
50.9% /
46.2% |
51.4% /
42.6% |
37.0% /
27.8% |
5.6 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
24.1% |
29.4 /
16.0 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
17 – 42 L |
-11.9 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
3.8% /
5.9% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
4.4 /
5.9 |
28.6% /
52.5% |
42.9% /
17.5% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
74 |
44.7% /
59.6% |
39.4% /
58.1% |
14.6% /
30.7% |
4.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
21.2% /
54.1% |
37.6 /
26.9 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
28 – 17 W |
-0.5 |
42.1% /
38.9% |
5.3% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.2 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
2.3 |
46 /
75 |
42.9% /
35.7% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
62.8% /
51.5% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.7% /
28.0% |
29.4 /
21.6 |
| 4 |
LA |
30 – 35 L |
2.3 |
35.1% /
48.6% |
5.4% /
2.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.6 |
55.6% /
65.6% |
14.8% /
21.9% |
7.0 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
41.7% /
63.0% |
43.8% /
56.5% |
52.3% /
51.6% |
6.9 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
46.4% |
22.4 /
34.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 35 L |
4.2 |
59.5% /
51.5% |
2.7% /
12.1% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.5 |
60.0% /
64.0% |
14.3% /
12.0% |
4.7 /
6.4 |
72 /
58 |
57.9% /
58.0% |
59.7% /
56.9% |
28.7% /
43.3% |
5.7 /
5.9 |
2.8% /
1.7% |
48.6% /
43.1% |
25.7 /
22.3 |
| 7 |
@SF |
40 – 10 W |
20.1 |
51.9% /
39.5% |
0.0% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
4.3 |
68.9% /
59.1% |
11.1% /
27.3% |
5.9 /
4.7 |
72 /
65 |
66.7% /
48.0% |
62.5% /
46.2% |
57.0% /
40.7% |
7.0 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
4.6% |
62.5% /
33.8% |
34.1 /
23.0 |
| 8 |
@WAS |
33 – 19 W |
2.5 |
37.5% /
39.5% |
8.3% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
20.5% /
26.7% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
63 /
58 |
57.4% /
40.9% |
52.4% /
39.7% |
24.1% /
50.5% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.9% /
25.9% |
39.1 /
29.7 |
| 9 |
KC |
28 – 17 W |
4.3 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
2.9% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.2 /
7.1 |
64.5% /
42.1% |
12.9% /
31.6% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
65 /
55 |
58.5% /
51.2% |
58.5% /
47.3% |
42.4% /
40.6% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
34.5% |
26.8 /
22.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
31.8% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.0 |
32.0% /
52.6% |
24.0% /
15.8% |
2.6 /
6.6 |
57 /
63 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
42.1% /
38.1% |
49.7% /
31.2% |
6.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
30.2% |
18.3 /
28.1 |
| 2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% /
50.9% |
9.7% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
56.3% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
58 /
69 |
55.3% /
53.8% |
53.4% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
24.2% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
23.2% |
26.7 /
22.1 |
| 3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% /
40.4% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
31.6% |
13.8% /
26.3% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
66 /
66 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
48.5% /
37.9% |
34.7% /
31.8% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
28.8% |
27.8 /
29.7 |
| 4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% /
43.5% |
2.3% /
13.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
58.6% /
44.7% |
27.6% /
23.7% |
5.1 /
3.1 |
72 /
61 |
56.1% /
47.7% |
52.8% /
44.3% |
30.9% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
62.3% |
25.9 /
21.9 |
| 6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
47.4% /
46.9% |
42.1% /
25.0% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
55 /
65 |
48.8% /
47.9% |
49.1% /
46.2% |
40.1% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
49.2% |
20.7 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% /
48.4% |
2.9% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.8 |
54.5% /
56.4% |
18.2% /
12.8% |
5.5 /
4.2 |
56 /
70 |
65.9% /
57.7% |
57.1% /
52.9% |
26.8% /
38.4% |
6.1 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
55.7% |
21.9 /
28.8 |
| 8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
3.3% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.7 |
37.5% /
22.7% |
28.1% /
36.4% |
4.4 /
2.0 |
62 /
57 |
45.8% /
41.5% |
43.5% /
40.4% |
53.1% /
40.1% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
3.2% /
1.8% |
51.6% /
38.6% |
26.1 /
36.9 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% /
40.0% |
5.0% /
4.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.2 |
36.8% /
50.0% |
26.3% /
21.1% |
2.8 /
5.3 |
59 /
63 |
52.4% /
50.0% |
44.1% /
46.0% |
39.6% /
43.3% |
6.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
32.2% /
60.3% |
20.5 /
35.8 |
Dallas Cowboys
@ 
Atlanta Falcons