Pittsburgh Steelers @

Baltimore Ravens

Sat, Dec 21
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 105
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -6.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs Pittsburgh

  • Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt’s ankle injury suffered in week 15’s loss to the Eagles put his status for this game in doubt but it does seem Watt will be suiting up against the Ravens. Watt leads the NFL with 6 forced fumbles and will play a major role in containing Lamar Jackson for Pittsburgh’s defense.
  • The Ravens’ tight ends have a 29% target share (5th-highest) but they will be shut down as the Steelers are conceding just -0.07 EPA/target to opposing TEs (5th).
  • Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing a 51% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (27th) and they could struggle versus screens to RB Justice Hill, who is gaining 1.67 yards per route run (2nd).
  • Baltimore’s offense is averaging 22% more yppp against Cover 3 compared to other coverages (7th) and the Steelers have the 3rd-highest Cover 3 rate. However, Lamar Jackson averaged only 5.8 yppp in the first meeting between these teams.
  • Pittsburgh’s offense has the 2nd-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation, but they will not be able to feature the ground game as the Ravens are conceding -0.17 EPA/rush (3rd).
  • Russell Wilson has only a 38% success rate in the last two games without the deep threat of WR George Pickens, who is likely out again on Saturday.
  • Steelers RT Broderick Jones has surrendered 8 sacks (3rd-most) and he will struggle when lined up across from edge defender Kyle Van Noy, who ranks 20th in pass-rushing efficiency.
  • Pittsburgh’s offense is targeting running backs on 24% of passes (3rd-most) but All-Pro LB Roquan Smith will limit the pass catchers out of the backfield as Baltimore’s defense is conceding a 41% receiving success rate to backs (10th).
  • Our model favors the Ravens by 9.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.7 points, but the underdog in this series is 21-4-2 ATS and the Steelers are 25-6-2 ATS as a dog against a division opponent. The Steelers are also 56-28-2 Under in road games going back almost a decade (although just 3-5 UN this season). I used Pitt +6.5 in my spread pool.
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