Game Analysis

Arizona (-4.5) vs CAROLINA

• Arizona RB James Conner rushed for 6.9 yards per carry last week and he has a favorable matchup on the ground in the game as the Panthers are surrendering 0.06 EPA/rush (31st).
• Cardinals TE Trey McBride has 116 targets without a receiving touchdown, but I believe this could be the week he finds the end zone as Carolina’s defense is allowing 0.43 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th).
• The Panthers yards per attempt versus zone is just 89% the man coverage yards per attempt (29th) and Bryce Young will struggle against Arizona’s complex defense with a 79% zone coverage rate (9th-highest).
• Cardinals nickelback Garrett Williams is conceding only 0.73 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) and he will shut down WR Adam Thielen, who is averaging 51.3 slot yards per game.
• Carolina WR Xavier Legette is doubtful this week and backup WR David Moore is averaging 0.14 yards per route run fewer compared to the rookie.
• Arizona interior defender LJ Collier ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will likely dominate guard Robert Hunt, who has surrendered 29 pressures (8th-most).
• Our model favors the Cardinals by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points, but the matchup significantly favors Arizona and that who I used in my spread pool.