Jacksonville Jaguars @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Dec 22
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 127
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -1, Total: 40

Game Analysis

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LAS VEGAS (-1) over Jacksonville

  • Desmond Ridder averaged just 4.6 yppp last Monday night with a 5.1% interception rate. Aidan O’Connell is likely be back for the Raiders, but both these offenses will struggle due to the scheme of the opposing defenses on Sunday.
  • Las Vegas against Cover 2 has a yppp just 89% of the yppp versus other coverages (27th) and Jacksonville’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 2 rate.
  • The Jaguars yards per attempt versus man is only 81% of the yards per attempt against zone coverage (30th) and Mac Jones will struggle as the Raiders have the 5th-highest man coverage rate.
  • The only aspect of this handicap keeping us off the under is injuries to the Las Vegas defense. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby had 54 pressures in the first 14 weeks (5th) before getting surgery.
  • Raiders’ backup cornerback Decamerion Richardson is allowing 0.40 more yards per cover snaps than starting CB Jakorian Bennett, who is sidelined with a shoulder injury.
  • Our model makes Las Vegas a 2.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.8 points.
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