Game Analysis

Note: The 49ers were released as a 2-Star Best Bet on Monday when the line was +2.5. San Francisco is not a play at -2.

2-Star Best Bet – **San Francisco (+2.5) over MIAMI

• The Dolphins averaged only 3.6 yppl last week and I’m expecting much of the same on Sunday as the defensive DNA is similar between the Texans and 49ers. DeMeco Ryans brought the system to Houston after being San Francisco’s defensive coordinator.
• Tua Tagovailoa had an 8% turnover-worthy play rate against Houston’s defense with comparable edge rushing to the 49ers. Nick Bosa ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency and he was back last week after missing 3 games. On the other side, San Francisco edge rusher Leonard Floyd has 8.5 sacks (12th).
• Miami’s offense will likely be without both starting tackles and injured LT Terron Armstead ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency and is worth 1 point.
• In addition to Bosa, the 49ers’ defense also got back starting S Talanoa Hufanga and starting LB Dre Greenlaw last week. San Francisco’s defense is allowing only 0.15 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (7th) and conceding -0.12 EPA/target to opposing running backs (5th) and those numbers should get better with Greenlaw now contributing (he had 8 tackles in his first game back)
• The Dolphins running backs have a 24% target share (2nd-highest) but the screen game will be shut down.
• Miami TE Jonnu Smith has 76 targets over Miami’s last 10 games while WR Tyreek Hill only has 73 but Smith will be contained on Sunday.
• Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is averaging 0.64 EPA/target (4th) but he will likely miss this game and he is worth 0.9 points.
• Brock Purdy is averaging 0.19 EPA/play (8th) and I expect him to rebound from last Thursday night when game conditions were 3.4 points worse than average according to our metrics (we had a Best Bet on the Under).
• Our model favors the 49ers by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points.

San Francisco is a 2-Star Best Bet at +1.5 or more and 1-Star down to pick (Strong Opinion at -1). No play at current line of -2.