Game Analysis

Lean – Under (42.5) – GREEN BAY (-14/-14.5) vs New Orleans

• Jordan Love had the 5th-highest success rate of his career last Sunday night (60%) versus the Seahawks and he has a chance to keep the momentum going as the Saints might’ve lost another cornerback last week in Kool-Aid McKinstry. New Orleans already traded starting CB Marshon Lattimore while starting CB Paulson Adebo broke his femur and is out for the year.
• Green Bay’s offense is averaging 12% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz (5th) and Love has a favorable matchup as the Saints have a 76% standard pass rush rate (5th-highest).
• New Orleans CB Alontae Taylor is surrendering 1.75 yards per cover snap, ranking last out of 78 qualifying cornerbacks, and he will struggle when lined up across from WR Romeo Doubs, whose 60% success rate ranks 8th.
• Packers RT Zach Tom ranks 16th in pass blocking efficiency and he will contain edge defender Carl Granderson, who has 54 pressures (11th).
• Green Bay’s offense has a 51% run play rate (2nd-highest) and ranks 10th in EPA/rush. Packers’ RB Josh Jacobs will have running room against a Saints defense surrendering a 45% rush success rate (30th).
• Jake Haener had only a 14% success rate in the first half last week, so New Orleans made a change under center to Spencer Rattler, who averaged 0.45 EPA/play.
• It’s safe to expect the Saints to stick with Rattler on Monday night and he will go against Green Bay’s pass rush coming off a game with the 3rd-highest pressure rate of last week at 45%.
• Rattler will not be able to combat the pass rush with the screen game because the Packers are allowing only -0.02 EPA/target to opposing running backs (9th). New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara leads his position averaging 1.75 yards per route run but he might not be able to suit up due to a groin adductor strain.
• Green Bay’s defense has the 3rd-highest Cover 2 rate, and they will limit Rattler as the Saints yppp versus Cover 2 is a league-low 78% of the yppp versus other coverages.
• The Packers have an advantage late in the season when hosting dome teams and they should win this one comfortably as it is expected to be 25 degrees with snow in the forecast.
• Our model makes Green Bay a 10.2-point favorite, with a predicted total of 39.7 points, but the matchups are so heavily in favor the Packers that I used Green Bay in my spread pool, as I think -15 is the fair line here with matchups taken into account.