Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First Half Under (20.5 -105) – Houston at KANSAS CITY (-3.5)

Alternate play is game under 42.5 at 42 or more (if you don’t have 1st-half lines)

• Patrick Mahomes took 10+ hits last week for the 3rd game in a row and was forced out of the action in Cleveland with a high ankle sprain.
• Chiefs recently acquired left tackle DJ Humphries is sidelined from the hamstring injury he got in his first start. The Chiefs signed Humphries because left tackle Wanya Morris ranks 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency. Andy Reid did not want to put Morris across from Myles Garrett last week, so he bumped guard Joe Thuney to tackle. It did not go well. Thuney surrendered 10 pressures in his first start at left tackle and he’ll continue to struggle on Sunday against Houston edge rusher Will Anderson, who has 10.5 sacks (7th).
• Mahomes dealing with the high ankle sprain will not have as much pocket mobility let alone being able to scramble on crucial downs. Mahomes had added 23 expected points with his legs (5th). We are docking the Chiefs offense 1.5 points for Mahomes gutting through the high ankle sprain, but it could be worth more in this matchup versus a Texans defense with an 8.7% sack rate (3rd).
• Kansas City’s tight ends lead the NFL with a 36% target share but those quick passes to Travis Kelce will be eliminated as Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low 38% success rate to opposing TEs.
• Chiefs’ interior defender Chris Jones ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency and will wreak havoc across from Houston’s interior offensive line, responsible for 58% of the allowed pressures (30th).
• Texans’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is looking for answers swapping RT Tytus Howard into guard and starting swing tackle Blake Fisher, but both surrendered a sack last week.
• Houston RB Joe Mixon is averaging 1.39 yards per route run (6th) but the screen game will be contained as Kansas City’s defense is conceding just a 40% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (7th). The Chiefs are allowing -0.15 EPA/rush (5th) and will also limit Mixon on the ground.
• CJ Stroud has struggled against two-high safety shells with a yppp only 86% of his yppp versus single-high (29th) and Kansas City’s defense has a 67% two-high safety rate (2nd-highest).
• Houston WR Nico Collins is averaging 0.56 EPA/target (9th) but he will be constrained by CB Trent McDuffie, who is conceding just 0.75 yards per cover snap (8th).
• Texans’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik brought over much of his scheme from Kyle Shanahan after being on the San Francisco staff in 2022. Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a proven game plan versus the scheme. San Francisco’s offense had a league-high 51.1% success rate through the Conference Championship last season, but the 49ers had just a 44.6% success rate against Kansas City’s defense in the Super Bowl.
• New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak also came over from the 49ers staff and Spagnuolo’s defense conceded only 13 points and 4.3 yppl to the Saints with Derek Carr in week 5.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 40.1. I lean with KC here on the basis of a 131-222-19 ATS road letdown situation that applies to Houston and a 90-27-1 ATS situation that applies to the Chiefs.
• I believe the first half under has more value because Andy Reid is more likely to be conservative with Mahomes high ankle sprain in the early goings while he could open up the offense if the game hangs in the balance late as Kansas City marches towards securing the AFC’s top seed.

The first-half Under is a Strong Opinion at 20.5 -115 odds or better.