Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **WASHINGTON (+3.5) over Philadelphia

Lean – Over (45.5)

• New Orleans had a 20.5% sack rate on Jayden Daniels last week as Washington’s offensive line was out of sorts due to the late scratch of veteran center Tyler Biadasz, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Biadasz will be back on the field this week lined up next to Commanders RG Sam Cosmi, who ranks 13th in pass-blocking efficiency. The pair will contain Eagles interior defender Jalen Carter, who has 48 pressures (7th).
• Philadelphia wide receiver AJ Brown was targeted on 8 of his 13 routes against Pittsburgh’s man coverage last week hauling in 6 receptions for 89 yards. Brown limped off the field with an ankle injury and he will be limited on Sunday by Washington CB Marshon Lattimore, who is conceding a league-low 0.30 yards per cover snap.
• Jalen Hurts does not have another option against the Commanders man scheme. The rest of Philadelphia’s wide receivers are averaging only 1.17 yards per route run versus man coverage.
• Eagles’ WR DeVonta Smith is averaging 0.51 EPA/target (11th) but he will be contained on the inside against nickelback Noah Igbinoghene, who is allowing just 0.94 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).
• Brown nursing the ankle injury isn’t the only injury concern on Philadelphia’s offense. RG Landon Dickerson missed the second half against the Steelers with a knee injury and the absence of his run blocking was noticeable. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley averaged just 0.37 yards before contact per rush last week.
• Dickerson will be fighting through the knee injury next to Philadelphia C Cam Jurgens, who ranks 26th out of 28 qualifiers in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Philadelphia’s yards per attempt against the blitz is only 91% the yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (27th) and Hurts could struggle as Washington’s defense has a 38% blitz rate (6th-highest).
• The Eagles have won 10 games in a row but from game 12 on teams that have won 8 or more consecutive games are just 9-37-1 ATS as a road favorite or pick since 1980 and the Commanders apply to a 138-65-1 ATS situation that plays on good offensive teams at home against good defensive teams.
• We favor the Commanders by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.0 points.

Washington is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3.5 to -120 odds and 1-Star to +3.