New England Patriots @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Dec 22
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 111
Odds: Buffalo Bills -14, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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BUFFALO (-14) vs New England

  • Buffalo’s offense has scored 30 points in eight consecutive games and there’s no reason to believe they will slow down on Sunday with uncharacteristically favorable weather for Josh Allen at home in December.
  • Bills’ right tackle Spencer Brown ranks 11th in pass-blocking efficiency and picked up a head injury in last week’s win over the Lions, but it looks like he plans on suiting up this Sunday.
  • New England’s offense has the 2nd-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation and they will look to feature the ground game as Buffalo’s rush defense ranks 28th by our metrics.
  • Bills’ edge rusher Greg Rousseau has 59 pressures (6th) and he will make life miserable for Drake Maye lined up across from RT Demontrey Jacobs, who ranks 60th out of 61 qualifiers in pass-blocking efficiency.
  • Our model makes Buffalo a 12.8-point favorite points, with a predicted total of 45.7 point, but I used the Bills in my pool based on a 73-38-1 ATS double-digit home favorite situation.
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