Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-7.5) vs Cleveland

• The Browns are averaging 5.0 yppp (29th) but it can get worse starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has a career average of 3.1 yppp. Thompson-Robinson is 3.3 points worse than Jameis Winston according to our numbers.
• Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has a league-high 12.5 sacks and will wreak havoc across from backup LT Germain Ifedi, who is surrendering a 9.5% pressure rate.
• Joe Burrow has protection problems of his own with left tackle Orlando Brown likely sidelined again. Brown ranks 18th in pass blocking efficiency, swing tackle Amarius Mims is already filling in on the right side, and third-string Cody Ford is dealing with an illness. Fourth-string LT Devin Cochran might go against Browns edge defender Myles Garrett, who leads NFL with 70 pressures.
• Cincinnati RG Alex Cappa has surrendered a league-high 38 pressures, and he will struggle across from interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, who ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Cleveland’s defense is conceding a 49% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th) and they will limit TE Mike Gesicki, who is averaging 0.50 EPA/target (3rd).
• Burrow’s yards per attempt versus man-coverage is only 84% his yards per attempt against zone (27th) and the Browns will make him work for it as they have a 37% man-coverage rate (4th-highest).
• Our model favors the Bengals by 10.3 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, but Cleveland applies to an 82-30-3 ATS big road underdog same season division revenge situation. I used Cleveland +7.5 in my spread pool (would have used Cincy at -7).