Game Analysis

Lean – LA Rams (-3) over NY JETS

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp had zero catches on three targets last week, but he has a favorable matchup on Sunday with the Jets likely missing starting nickelback Michael Carter. Kupp is averaging 2.36 yards per route run in the slot (2nd) and would line up across from backup nickelback Kendall Sheffield.
• An even larger loss for New York’s defense is interior defender Quinnen Williams, who ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency but is nursing a hamstring injury. Williams is worth 5 percentage points of win probability according to our numbers.
• Jets WR Davante Adams caught 9 of 12 targets for 198 yards last week and Los Angeles will be hoping that starting cornerback Cobie Durant can take advantage of the extra rest in time to battle with Adams. Durant is allowing 0.86 yards per cover snap (18th).
• New York backup LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu will struggle versus a fellow rookie this week as edge defender Jared Verse ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Aaron Rodgers will need to get the ball out fast using the screen game. The Jets running backs have a 20% target share (6th-highest) and the Rams are surrendering a league-high 0.39 EPA/target to opposing RBs.
• Our model favors the Rams by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.6 points, but teams coming off 2 upset wins tend to struggle a bit on the road against non-division teams (less likely to letdown against division opponents). Such teams are just 71-101-4 ATS. That trend is not that significant and I’ll still lean with the Rams at -3 -120 or better based on the line value.