Game Analysis

NEW ORLEANS (-6) vs NY Giants

Lean – Over (39)

· The New Orleans offense averaged 4.0 yppl last week but they will get back WR Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill, who are worth 1.2 points combined by our metrics.

· Shaheed has 10 receptions with 20+ air yards (8th) and he will be open deep versus rookie CB Deonte Banks when the Giants blitz.

· The Saints yards per attempt versus the blitz is 14% more than their yards per attempt against a standard pass rush and Derek Carr has a favorable matchup as New York’s defense has a 48.0% blitz rate (2nd-highest).

· The Giants are surrendering a 47% pass success rate to running backs (27th) and they will struggle against RB Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 1.78 yards per route run (2nd).

· New York has won three games in a row and Tommy DeVito’s 4.6 yppp, while not good, is more than Daniel Jones’ 3.9 yppp this season.

· DeVito is also showing the ability to run like Jones after a career-high 71 rushing yards on 10 carries last Monday night. New Orleans has a 32.5% man-coverage rate (6th-highest) and there could be scrambling lanes for DeVito in this game.

· Our model favors the Saints by 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 42.7 points.