Game Analysis

Note: The Strong Opinion on the Rams was released before SF’s TE Kittle was listed as unlikely to play. The Rams are still a Strong Opinion at +6.5 with Kittle out.

Strong Opinion – LA RAMS (+7 -105) over San Francisco

Lean – Under ( 44.5)

• Let’s sift through these injuries because we’ve got a ton on both offenses as we’ve seen this total crater from 48 on the lookahead.
• The 49ers will again be without running back Christian McCaffrey due to a calf strain and Achilles tendinitis. McCaffrey being sidelined last week was a major problem versus Minnesota’s blitz. Brock Purdy had a 30% success rate when blitzed last game compared to a 67% success rate when Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores did not send extra pass rushers.
• McCaffrey led the San Francisco’s offense with a 20.5% target share when Purdy was pressured in 2023, and I expect the Rams to dial up a ton of blitzes on Sunday to keep Purdy on his back foot without an outlet. Los Angeles had a 36.6% blitz rate last season (8th-highest).
• The 49ers offense will also not have WR Deebo Samuel, who is averaging 2.45 yards per route run (13th) and worth 0.8 points by our metrics.
• San Francisco tight end George Kittle would have gotten more looks but Kittle with Samuel out but he is now listed as doubtful and is unlikely to play.
• The remaining 49ers receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, is averaging 0.61 EPA/target (9th) and he will battle across from CB Cobie Durant, who has allowed only 14 yards in the first two games (4th-fewest).
• San Francisco’s offense has a 45.2% rush success rate (8th) and I expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean into the ground game as the Rams are allowing 0.12 EPA/rush (30th).
• The Los Angeles interior offensive line was already without Steve Avila and now Jonah Jackson will be sidelined with a fractured scapula. Rams’ backup rookie center Beaux Limmer ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Matthew Stafford will be pleased to have starting LT Alaric Jackson back this week after serving a suspension, as backup Warren McClendon ranked 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Rams’ receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are out and they combined to average 0.30 EPA/target last season while the other wide receivers on the Rams combined to average 0.04 EPA/target. This works out to 4.6 points per game. Although Sean McVay will be giving some of the high value schemed up touches to the other wide receivers which would usually go to Kupp and Nacua.
• Our model favors the 49ers by just 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 40.6 points.

The Rams are a Strong Opinion at +6.5 or more.