Game Analysis

Lean – Over (36) – PITTSBURGH (-1.5) vs LA Chargers

• Mike Tomlin is historically conservative on the road and the Steelers are 2-0 while scoring only one touchdown and they lead the NFL with 38.5 rushes per game.
• However, Pittsburgh’s ground game will be contained coming back home on Sunday as the Chargers are allowing a league-low -0.44 EPA/rush.
• Justin Fields is one of three quarterbacks without a turnover-worthy throw, and he has retained the starting job. Although, I’m not sure how long his tenure will last. Fields had 41 turnovers in the last three seasons (7th-most).
• Steelers WR George Pickens 0.78 EPA/target (7th) and he will battle across from CB Kristian Fulton, who is allowing a league-low 0.02 yards per cover snap.
• The Los Angeles offensive line is responsible for their 2-0 start as 59% of the yardage gained by the Chargers through two weeks has been on the ground.
• The Chargers rank 21st in adjusted pace by our numbers but the offense could speed up when they aren’t afforded free rushing lanes. Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing -0.29 EPA/rush (3rd) and the Chargers will have to throw.
• The Los Angeles offensive line has been solid in pass protection – allowing pressure within 2.5 seconds on only 11% of dropbacks (2nd).
• Chargers LT Rashawn Slater ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge rusher Alex Highsmith, who had 69 pressures last season (13th).
• Justin Herbert walked off the field last week and went into a medical tent with trainers, but he didn’t miss a snap. His banged-up lower right leg will likely affect his mobility.
• The Chargers passing attack will come down to whether rookie right tackle Joe Alt can hold his own across from edge defender TJ Watt, who had a league-high 19.0 sacks last year.
• Los Angeles wide receiver Quentin Johnston is thriving with the new coaching staff averaging 0.54 EPA/target (13th) but he will be limited by cornerback Joey Porter, who is conceding 0.50 yards per cover snap (20th).
• Herbert will look inside to the battle of the rookies with WR Ladd McConkey lined up across from Beanie Bishop, who is allowing 1.44 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 25th out of 30 qualifying nickelbacks.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 38.1 points. Pittsburgh applies to an 88-24-1 ATS situation and I used the Steelers in my spread pool.