Game Analysis

Lean – ATLANTA (+3.5) over Kansas City

• Atlanta had only a 1% chance of winning after Jalen Hurts converted a 3rd down with 2 minutes left last week, but the Falcons pulled off the comeback on Monday night.
• However, Kirk Cousins is averaging just 5.8 yppp excluding the last drive against Philly, which was not Atlanta’s normal offense, and Cousins admitted himself “I don’t feel like I was sharp enough”. He wasn’t pushing off his back foot much due to the Achilles even on the last drive and he doesn’t look comfortable in the structure of his new scheme.
• Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s scheme has also completely changed the dynamic of this offensive line. The Falcons ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency last season, and they rank 31st through two weeks.
• Atlanta All-Pro RG Chris Lindstrom most exemplifies the regression surrendering a league-high 8 pressures this season after ranking 2nd in pass blocking efficiency in 2023. Chiefs DT Chris Jones leads the NFL with 13 pressures and will line up across from Lindstrom on Sunday.
• Kansas City cornerback Trent McDuffie shadowed Cincinnati wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase on about half his routes last week and conceded only 1 catch for 4 yards. McDuffie will similarly shut down Falcons WR Drake London, who has a 64% success rate (10th).
• Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson has 41 touches in two games and the Falcons will need to get him going on the ground and through the air in this game. Robinson leads running backs with a 70% pass success rate. Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is happy to concede swing passes to running backs and Kansas City’s defense ranked 28th in EPA/rush allowed last season.
• Patrick Mahomes has not been able to get Travis Kelce going this year, averaging only 5.6 yards per target, and I do not expect them to turn it around this week as Kelce will be limited by Falcons All-Pro safety Jessie Bates, who is getting 34% of his snaps in the box through two games under new head coach Raheem Morris after never getting a 20% snap share in the box in his previous 6 seasons.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, but Atlanta applies to a 60-11-3 ATS situation and I’ll lean with the Falcons based on that.