Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **First Half Over (19.5) – CLEVELAND (-6.5) vs NY Giants

• New York’s defense has a 37.5% pressure rate (9th) and yet are surrendering 0.28 EPA/dropback (28th). Imagine this pass defense when they cannot affect the opposing quarterback – which I expect to be the case on Sunday.
• Cleveland T Jack Conklin has been out since week 1 of last season but he was full go at Browns practice for the first time in more than a year and ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency in 2022. Conklin getting back in uniform will sideline backup LT James Hudson, who was surrendering an 11% pressure rate.
• Cleveland’s interior offensive line was at fault for only 43% of the pressures last season (7th-fewest) and they will contain nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Browns RT Dawand Jones ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency. He did not practice on Wednesday but turns out it was precautionary and indicated he feels good about playing this week.
• Cleveland T Jeddrick Wills is also practicing. The Browns offensive line will be at full strength for the first time in 20 games. Deshaun Watson will be kept clean and pick apart this Giants secondary.
• New York’s offense also has as favorable a matchup as you can versus Cleveland’s defense. When the Giants are at their best, it’s versus man coverage as they averaged 66% more yards per attempt against man than zone with Daniel Jones in 2022 (3rd). The Browns have a 32.2% man-coverage rate (6th-highest) and Jones will take off using his legs when Cleveland’s cornerbacks turn their backs to him. Jones is averaging a career 31.6 rushing yards per game, which he will likely eclipse this week.
• Giants head coach Brian Daboll will scheme up man-beating routes to rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, whose 69% target rate last week was the highest by any receiver who ran 15+ routes in a game during the last 9 seasons. Nabers is averaging 12.3 yards per target versus man coverage.
• New York LT Andrew Thomas ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit edge defender Myles Garrett, whose 86 pressures last year ranked 7th.
• Our model favors the Browns by 8.5 with a predicted total of 41.3.
• I typically like to bet first half overs when both head coaches are offensive minded because they are the league’s best schemer and are more likely to put up points on scripted drives than the defensive head coaches running the ball in first halves. Furthermore, over 9% of games with 1st-half totals in this area land on 20 – making 19.5 an attractive number to bet over.

The first-half Over (19.5) is a 2-Star Best Bet at 19.5 up to -115 odds and 1-Star Over 20 points.