Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Chicago (+1.5 -105) over INDIANAPOLIS

Lean – Over (43.5)

• Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams will get a reprieve after going against two defenses ranked top 10 in yards per play allowed during his first two NFL starts. Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner, who led Indianapolis with 49 pressures last season, is sidelined along with Colts’ top cornerback JuJu Brents.
• Houston’s defense had a 42% blitz rate on Williams last Sunday night and got 5 sacks when sending extra pass rushers with Chicago’s offensive line looking out of sync. Williams will not have to go against the blitz in this game as it is not in Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s DNA. Indianapolis had a league-low 17.2% blitz rate last year. Williams had 91% of his passing yards when the Texans had a standard pass rush last week.
• Bears wide receiver DJ Moore averaged 0.43 EPA/target last year (10th) and he should breakout in this game in a favorable matchup versus CB Jaylon Jones, who is surrendering 2.21 yards per cover snap (3rd-worst).
• The Bears should also be able to support the rookie quarterback with the ground game as the Colts are surrendering 5.1 yards per carry (28th).
• The Indianapolis offense has a 47% rush success rate compared (6th) to just a 41% dropback success rate (23rd). However, the Colts can’t exclusively lean on the rushing attack as Chicago’s defense is allowing -0.26 EPA/rush (5th).
• Anthony Richardson leads the NFL with an 8.2% turnover-worthy throw rate, and I expect him to have at least one interception this week.
• Bears CB Jaylon Johnson allowed a league-low 0.38 yards per cover snap in 2023, and Chicago’s All-Pro cornerback is conceding 0.39 yards per cover snap this year. Johnson will shut down Indianapolis deep threat WR Alec Pierce, who has 5 targets with 20+ air yards (3rd) and has 181 receiving yards on just 10 targets. The other Indy wide receivers have combined to average only 5.6 yards per target.
• Our model favors the Bears by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.2 points, and Chicago applies to a 223-121-10 ATS road underdog situation.

Chicago is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and the Bears are half of a 1-Star Best Bet 6-point teaser with Cincinnati (+7.5 or more with Chicago and -2.5 or less with Cincy).