Game Analysis

NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) vs Philadelphia

• The Saints scored touchdowns on their first 6 drives last week in Dallas and all but one of them were at least 70 yards.
• New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has really gotten this unit cooking with motion and the deep ball. The Saints lead the NFL with an 84% motion rate and are averaging 11.0 yppp on dropbacks with motion. Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed’s 70-yard touchdown against the Cowboys was his league-high 7th catch on passes with 50+ air yards since the start of last season.
• Dallas blitzed Carr on 41% of dropbacks but the New Orleans offensive line continues to hold up and is conceding just an 18% pressure rate.
• This Saints offensive line was considered to be one of the least talented in the NFL heading into the year so I’m crediting most of the protection to Kubiak’s scheme. Only 23% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks have been true pass sets. In other words, 77% of his dropbacks used play action, screens, time-to-throws under 2 seconds, short dropbacks or saw less than 4 rushers.
• Carr has a 51.2% play action rate through two weeks and is averaging 0.53 EPA/play on those dropbacks. No quarterback was over a 32% play action rate last season.
• New Orleans rookie LT Taliese Fuaga will be tested on Sunday by edge defender Josh Sweat, who has 10 pressures (8th).
• Sweat might have the advantage in pass rush but he will likely struggle defending the ground game. Sweat averaged only 0.9 run stops per game last year and all 4 of Saints RB Alvin Kamara’s rushes of at least 10 yards were outside to the left side of the formation last week.
• New Orleans is using heavy personnel to force opposing defenses to put more linebackers on the field. The Cowboys were in base defense on 88% of snaps last week. Philadelphia’s linebacker depth is lacking and they are surrendering a 44.9% rush success rate (27th). The Saints are averaging 0.17 EPA/rush (2nd).
• Eagles’ defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense surrendered 0.15 EPA/target to opposing running backs last season (31st) in Miami and Philadelphia’s linebackers will also struggle to contain Kamara as a receiver. Kamara leads running backs averaging 3.83 yards per route run.
• New Orleans defense allowed -0.21 EPA/dropback last week despite missing top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Saints’ rookie CB Kool-Aid McKinstry is preventing separation on just 72% of his opportunities (2nd).
• New Orleans had a 46% press coverage rate last week and the Cowboys wide receivers earned just 3 targets when pressed. Eagles’ wide receiver AJ Brown would typically be the option for Jalen Hurt against press but he is likely out another week.
• I do think Hurts will be given enough time in the pocket to find other Philadelphia receivers in this game. Eagles RT Lane Johnson has not conceded a pressure this season and LT Jordan Mailata ranks 18th in pass blocking efficiency. Saints’ edge defender Chase Young has 9 pressures (10th) and edge defender Carl Granderson ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency but they will be contained by Philadelphia’s tackles.
• The Eagles ground game ranks 6th by our metrics but New Orleans is allowing only a 27.0% rush success rate (3rd).
• Our model favors the Saints by 2.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.2 points. I used Philly in my spread pool.