Game Analysis

TENNESSEE (-3/-2.5) vs Green Bay

Note: The analysis below assumes that GB QB Jordan Love will be out again this week, although there is a chance he could play, although he was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday night. If he does play then I’ll update the analysis when that is confirmed.

• Green Bay’s offense had a comically low 12% early down pass play rate last week in Malik Willis’ first start, which was the lowest we’ve seen from an offense since Mac Jones’ rookie year when the Patriots went into Buffalo on a Monday night with sideways rain.
• The Packers had a 45% rush success rate in the first half before the Colts realized they had no interest in letting Willis throw the ball. Indianapolis started loading up the box and Green Bay’s run game had only a 6% success rate in the second half.
• Tennessee’s defense will just load up the box right away and they have the talent to man-up on Green Bay’s receivers. WR Romeo Doubs is averaging 0.98 EPA/target (3rd) but he will be shut down on the outside by Titans All-Pro CB L’Jarius Sneed and CB Chidobe Awuzie, who has conceded 0.50 yards per cover snap (20th).
• Tennessee nickelback Roger McCreary is allowing just 0.41 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and he will limit WR Jayden Reed, who is gaining 3.42 yards per route run (6th).
• The Titans lead the NFL with 5 giveaways due to some maddening decisions by Will Levis, but he has just a 2.7% turnover worthy play rate and I don’t expect him to continue the bone headedness. If anything, Tennessee will become extra conservative to protect against Levis. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans did not turn the ball over once on Sunday.
• Tennessee will also likely not get a punt blocked which has happened two straight weeks. The Titans have lost 9 EPA from those blocks.
• Tennessee’s offense should take the ball out of Levis’s hands and pound the rock because the pass protection isn’t going to hold up. Packers edge defender Rashan Gary ranked 9th in pass rushing efficiency last season and he will wreak havoc across from RT Nicholas Petit-Frere, who has allowed a league-high 11 pressures.
• Titans’ guards Peter Skoronski and Dillon Radunz rank 54th and 58th respectively in pass blocking efficiency out of 61 qualifying guards. Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark have combined for 13 pressures on the interior and should get at least one sack versus Tennessee’s guards.
• Our model favors the Titans by 3.1 with a predicted total of 38.6.