Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (40) – TAMPA BAY (-6.5) vs Denver

• We are on market with these two offenses with Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers rated 17th and Bo Nix’s Broncos ranked 29th, but these defenses would have to be only about a point worse than average combined for this total to be as low as 40 in ideal weather conditions.
• I think given the starters missing on both Tampa Bay’s defense and Denver’s defense it is likely they combine to be at least 4 points worse than average.
• The Buccaneers are without All-Pro S Antoine Winfield and interior defender Vita Vea, who had a 10.5% run stop rate last season (9th). Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering 0.08 EPA/rush (27th) in large part because Vea has only gotten 21 run defense snaps.
• The Lions had 7 drives reach inside the Buccaneers 30-yard line last week but scored just 9 points on them. Tampa Bay’s defense will be worse with Winfield and Vea sidelined moving forward.
• The Broncos defense sneakily leads the NFL with a 48.1% pressure rate and they are surrendering 0.06 EPA/dropback (19th) despite the good pass rush. Now, Denver’s defense will likely be without two of its top pass rushers and the defense could fall off a cliff.
• Broncos edge defender Baron Browning suffered a foot injury early in the second quarter last week and did not return, and interior defender John Franklin-Myers has a concussion.
• Our model makes Tampa Bay a 5.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.4 points.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 40.5 points or less.