Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-7.5) over Washington

Cincinnati was part of the 2-Star Teaser at -1.5 with Chicago (+7.5).

• Cincinnati’s offense is continuing their extreme pass heavy attack from last season with a 70% neutral game pass rate this year (2nd-highest) and Joe Burrow has a favorable matchup this week as the Commanders are surrendering league-high 0.51 EPA/dropback.
• An evolution for Bengals head coach Zac Taylor from 2023 is adding motion. Cincinnati’s offense had a 71% motion rate versus the Chiefs which was the highest they’ve ever had under Taylor. The Bengals averaged 3.5 more yards per play with motion in Kansas City than without motion.
• Washington’s defense forced the Giants into just 2 punts last week and allowed 37 points to the Buccaneers in week 1. I expect much of the same from Burrow especially with starting WR Tee Higgins moving towards playing on Monday night.
• Higgins would be lining up across from Commanders CB Benjamin St-Juste, who is allowing 1.94 yards per cover snap ranking 90th out of 94 qualifying cornerbacks.
• Washington’s other starting cornerback Michael Davis is surrendering a league-high 4.77 yards per cover snap and he will be powerless against WR Ja’Marr Chase, whose 0.46 EPA/target last season ranked 5th.
• Cincinnati’s rush defense ranks 18th by our numbers but they will likely be without two starters on the interior defensive line. However, this is unlikely to affect them as much in a game script they are expected to be ahead.
• The Bengals are allowing only 3.3 yards per target to opposing running backs this year and Cincinnati’s defense will contain screens to RB Austin Ekeler, who is averaging 3.09 yards per route run (2nd). Jayden Daniels is averaging just 4.7 air yards per attempt ranking 2nd-lowest among quarterbacks in the first two weeks and Commanders offensive coordinator isn’t leaning into his rookie quarterback’s strength as a deep passer.
• Our model favors the Bengals by 12.2 with a predicted total of 43.8.