Game Analysis

Lean – DALLAS (+1) over Baltimore

• Baltimore’s defense pass rush does not look the same this season and it’s becoming more and more clear they were getting by on scheme in 2023. The Ravens have a 28.3% pressure rate (27th) while the Seahawks have a 43.4% pressure rate (2nd) coached by former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.
• Ravens’ interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency last season but he will be contained by All-Pro RG Zack Martin and rookie C Cooper Beebe, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The lack of NFL caliber running backs is killing the Cowboys. The Dallas running backs have been stuffed on a league-low 5.6% of carries yet the Cowboys have just a 37.0% rush success rate (23rd).
• Dallas is allowing a league-high 0.15 EPA/rush and I expect Baltimore to feed Derrick Henry on Sunday. The Ravens are averaging 0.08 EPA/rush (3rd).
• Baltimore’s right tackles Patrick Mekari and rookie Roger Rosengarten are combining to surrender a 9% pressure rate and they will struggle against edge defender Micah Parsons, who led the league in pass rushing efficiency last season.
• Lamar Jackson will look downfield to WR Rashod Bateman when he extends plays evading the Cowboys pass rush. Bateman has 3 deep targets (10th) and he will line up across from Dallas rookie CB Caelen Carson, who is preventing separation on only 20% of his opportunities (3rd-worst).
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 2.0 with a predicted total of 44.4.