Game Analysis

  Lean – NY JETS (-6) over New England

• New England’s pass rush has 6 sacks (10th) despite trading edge defender Matt Judon and sidelining interior defender Christian Barmore (49 pressures in 2023, 14th) due to blood clots. However, the sacks are a mirage as the Patriots have just a 28.9% pressure rate (26th). New England’s defense will eventually feel the loss of Judon and Barmore.
• New England edge defender Keion White ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be shut down in this game as Jets tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses have not allowed a sack this season.
• New York offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s offense is not well-schemed to give answers to the quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is averaging only 4.7 yards per attempt versus the blitz. The Patriots defense a 39.8% blitz rate (6th-highest) and could give Rodgers trouble.
• New England cornerback Jonathan Jones is conceding 0.41 yards per cover snap (17th) and he will contain WR Garrett Wilson, who has a 60% success rate (12th).
• Rodgers is targeting running backs on a league-high 32.8% of passes and he’s better off looking for RB Breece Hall against the blitz especially since Patriots starting linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley is for the year after he tore his pec.
• The Jets are also going to be without a starting linebacker after CJ Mosley was carted to the locker room due to a foot injury last week. Jacoby Brissett will attack this loss by featuring tight end Hunter Henry, who is averaging 2.44 yards per route run (4th).
• New York’s defense will also be missing edge rusher Jermaine Johnson, who had 7 pressures this year (20th) before tearing his Achilles. The Jets were already shallow at edge defender because Haason Reddick has not yet reported. New York’s defense was counting on Reddick’s 66 pressures he got in 2023 (15th).
• New England rookie RG Layden Robinson ranks 2nd-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from Javon Kinlaw, whose 5 pressures ranks 18th.
• Patriots rookie head coach Jerod Mayo hasn’t set the cadence in a short week yet. First year head coaches tend to be at a disadvantage preparing for their first Thursday game.
• Our model favors the Jets by 6.1 points with a predicted total of 36.9 points, and teams coming off an overtime game (the Pats) are just 4-22 ATS on Thursdays (against a team not coming off an OT game the previous week). That’s probably worth a point.