Game Analysis

Lean – BALTIMORE (-7) over LA Rams

· Rams WR Puka Nacua became the first rookie to eclipse 1000 receiving yards by week 13 since Justin Jefferson.

· Nacua ended last Sunday with a league-high 90 yards from the slot, but I expect him to be shut down in this game along with WR Cooper Kupp. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey is conceding 0.45 yards per cover snap (2nd) and nickelback Kyle Hamilton is allowing only 0.46 yards per slot cover snap (2nd). Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will put Humphrey and Hamilton across from Nacua and Kupp on most dropbacks.

· Ravens edge defender Jadeveon Clowney has 55 pressures (10th) but he will be contained by RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 16th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Baltimore TE Mark Andrews was averaging 0.56 EPA/target (2nd) before a calf injury ended his season.

· Lamar Jackson averaged just 4.8 yppp in the first game without Andrews before their bye.

· I could see the Ravens leaning on the ground game. Baltimore’s offense already leads the NFL averaging 0.06 EPA/rush and they’ve gotten a recent emergence of RB Keaton Mitchell, who is gaining 4.5 yards per carry after contact in the last 5 weeks (3rd).

· Jackson should have clean pockets when Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken sets up play-action shots deep. Just 34% of Baltimore’s pressures this season have been charged to the interior offensive line (2nd-fewest) and they will limit DT Aaron Donald, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 7.9 points, with a predicted total of 41.4 points, and Baltimore applies to an 82-25-5 ATS favorite off a bye situation.