Game Analysis
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1-Star Best Bet – *Indianapolis Team Total (Over 21.5 -105)
Lean – Indianapolis (-2) over GREEN BAY
- Shane Steichen’s offense is a recipe for overs. The Colts led the NFL in neutral situation pace last season by our numbers and this year they’re adding a new dynamic with Anthony Richardson leading the league with a 16.4-yards average depth of target in week 1.
- Richardson completed 47% of his passes last week but he averaged 0.21 EPA per play by completing two 50+ yard passes. The Indianapolis offense is going to bomb away, but I expect Richardson to complete more than 50% of his passes in this game, especially if underneath weapon WR Josh Downs can suit up.
- The Colts allowed just 5 quarterback pressures in week 1 and this offensive line should give Richardson time to throw versus a Packers defense with a 39.1% pressure rate last year (7th).
- Indianapolis C Ryan Kelly led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency last year while All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency. The interior duo will shut down Green Bay DT Kenny Clark, who had 4 pressures last week (6th).
- The Colts ground game had a 52.6% rush success rate in week 1 (5th) as they are too much to handle with the offensive line and the threat of Richardson as a runner. Richardson had 56 rushing yards against the Texans.
- Jordan Love is out about 3 weeks with an MCL sprain. Malik Willis is expected to start on Sunday and the market has moved about 7 points, which is near the peak you’ll see for any player in the NFL.
- Willis is averaging -0.43 EPA/play in his career, ranking last out of 71 quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks since he came into the league.
- Willis has had the worst pocket presence I’ve seen with 32% of his pressures turning into sacks in his career.
- Willis also has a league-high 63% short-of-the-sticks throwing rate since entering the NFL. Willis will not have anything open underneath as Indianapolis linebacker EJ Speed conceded 0.34 yards per cover snap in week 1 and linebacker Zaire Franklin allowed only 0.20 yards per cover snap versus Houston.
- Packers’ inside WR Jayden Reed led the NFL with 138 receiving yards last week but he will be contained by Colts’ nickelback Kenny Moore, who conceded 0.33 yards per cover snap in the slot against the Texans (9th).
- The reason this isn’t a full fade on Green Bay’s offense is the market has already adjusted a ton for the quarterback change and isn’t accounting for the Indianapolis defense missing three starters, which is worth 1.9 points by our metrics.
- Colts DT DeForest Buckner had 52 pressures last season (12th) and he is banged-up because of a back injury.
- Indianapolis safety Julian Blackmon led the Colts with 10 tackles last week, but he has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.
- Indianapolis CB JuJu Brents led the Colts forcing 8 incompletions last year, but he went to injured reserve with a knee injury this week.
- Matt LaFleur traded a 7th-round pick for Malik Willis and wanted him as the clear backup going into the season out of all his options so there is a chance he sees something in the young quarterback to turn his career around.
- Our model favors the Colts by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, and Indy applies to a 34-7 ATS week 2 bounce-back situation. The Over is showing value but I don’t want my faith in Malik Willis so I’ll put my money on the Colts’ offense.
The Indianapolis Team Total is a 1-Star Best Bet at Over 21.5 up to -115 odds.