Game Analysis

Lean – MINNESOTA (+2) over Houston

• I want to go through the pricing for this game because I’m not sure Houston should be favored.
• The betting market priors before the season had the Texans 2.5 points better than an average team and the Vikings 2 points worse than an average team. Factor in 2 points for home field advantage and I think we would’ve seen this line at Houston -2.5 if this game were in week 1.
• Here we are in week 3 and I think it’s fair to have upgraded the Vikings significantly more than the Texans. Minnesota’s offense is averaging 6.8 yppl (2nd) and the defense is allowing -0.22 EPA/play (4th). We’ve upgraded the Vikings by 2.5 points since the preseason.
• Meanwhile, Houston’s offense is averaging 5.3 yppl (18th) and the defense is allowing -0.09 EPA/play (8th). The Texans have been favored by 3 and won by 2 and favored by 6.5 and won by 6. I’m not sure Houston deserves much of an upgrade after the first two weeks.
• Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is scheming it up for Darnold with only a 10% tight window throw rate (5th-lowest) and Darnold is averaging 8.5 yppp (2nd).
• I think Darnold will have time to operate O’Connell’s offense because Minnesota’s best offensive linemen will neutralize Houston’s best defensive linemen. Texans edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have combined to 17 pressures, but RT Brian O’Neill ranks 16th in pass blocking efficiency and LT Christian Darrisaw ranked 17th in pass blocking efficiency last season.
• Our model favors the Vikings by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points.