Game Analysis

Detroit (-3) vs ARIZONA

• Kyler Murray averaged 11.7 yppp last week against the Rams by extending plays and throwing downfield. Murray averaged 18.2 yppp on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds.
• We know Murray is one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the NFL but I’m more skeptical he can continue the deep passing success. Murray completed all 5 of his passes with at least 20 air yards last week but last season he went just 8 for 26 on such throws.
• Murray is averaging 0.45 EPA/play (2nd) as Arizona’s offense has torched defenses with bad linebackers. Bills All-Pro LB Matt Milano is out, and the Rams traded top linebacker Ernest Jones before the season.
• The Cardinals have used 13 personnel on 20% of snaps (2nd-highest) to force linebackers onto the field and they’ll do so again on Sunday as Lions top LB Alex Anzalone is likely out with a concussion.
• Anzalone leads linebackers in preventing separation on 63% of his opportunities (6th) and he is worth 0.4 points to Detroit’s defense.
• Lions CB Carlton Davis is not off to a great start in his new defense, as he’s surrendering a league-high 171 yards through two games. He could struggle again this week versus WR Marvin Harrison, who is averaging 0.77 EPA/target (8th). The rookie had 8 targets last week with Arizona’s next closest receiver only having 2.
• The Cardinals are targeting tight ends on 34.6% of passes (3rd-most) but TE Trey McBride has not caught a pass versus man-coverage this season and Detroit’s defense has a 42.4% man-coverage rate (3rd-highest). The Lions conceded 0.07 EPA/target to TEs last season (8th).
• Cardinals’ backup RT Kelvin Beachum ranks 52nd in pass blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying tackles and he will get even worse after this week against edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who leads NFL with 5.5 sacks.
• The Lions are converting just 27% of their redzone drives into touchdowns through two weeks after having a 67% redzone touchdown rate last season. Detroit’s offense should start punching it in more often.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown seemed to be in pain after suffering a hit on Detroit’s final drive and he might be banged-up this week versus Arizona nickelback Garrett Williams, who is conceding 0.48 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th).
• Our model favors the Lions by 3.1 with a predicted total of 52.1.