Game Analysis

Dallas (-7) vs WASHINGTON

Lean – Under (41)

· The Commanders will go with rookie Sam Howell under center this week. Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz rank 32nd and 36th in EPA/play this season. I don’t think Howell will be significantly worse and we are downgrading Washington’s offense by just 2 points.

· Dallas has an 8.8% sack rate (2nd) and the Cowboys had 20 pressures against the Commanders in week 4. Washington’s offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking efficiency and they will not be able to protect Howell in this matchup.

· Howell will get the ball out quickly using screens to try catch the Dallas pass rush being too aggressive. The Commanders target running backs on 23% of passes (4th-highest rate) and the Cowboys are surrendering 6.3 yards per target to opposing RBs (28th).

· Washington’s defense will likely once again be without safety Kamren Curl, who ranks 5th in coverage grade by PFF. Browns WR Amari Cooper had a couple of deep touchdowns last week without Curl defending downfield.

· I could see Dak Prescott attacking backup S Darrick Forrest with wide receiver TY Hilton, who had a crucial third-and-30 conversion in the victory against the Eagles in week 16 and converted three third downs into first downs last game.

· Commanders’ interior defender Jonathan Allen’s status is also in doubt for Sunday. Allen ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency. Chase Young will likely not be able to pick up the slack as the edge defender doesn’t look completely right with only 3 pressures in 29 pass rushing snaps since making his debut in week 16.

· Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz is averaging 1.43 yards per route run (8th) but he will be contained in this game as the Commanders are conceding 6.6 yards per target to TEs (10th).

· Our model makes Dallas a 9.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.4.