Game Analysis
After the Monday Night Fiesta, in which El Chapo called in the Raiders victory/cover, Oakland is 8-2 and firmly in control of the title of the highest overachieving team this season. The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL and a -0.4 yards per play differential, as much of their winning ways are due to the extremely positive and highly random +10 turnover differential. Although, while they have overachieved, the Raiders are still an explosive offense as they rank 6th in overall offense due to their ability to gain chunk yardage through the air and ground. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have underperformed expectations all year, sitting at 4-6, with a defense allowing 25 points a game. Despite Cam Newton not performing up to his previous 2015 MVP-winning season, he is still the 14th ranked passer in the league. One of the biggest differences in the Panthers disappointing season-to-date performance is that at this time last season they were +13 in turnover differential (ending the 2015 regular season +20) and are currently -5 in turnover differential season-to-date. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (49.5), upgrade to a Strong Opinion at (48). Lean to Raiders (-3).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
40.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.0%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.9%
32.1%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.4
24.2
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.8%
24.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.3%
40.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.9%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
65.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.7%
49.0%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.7%
35.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
26.3
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
37.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
26.8
-
Game Control
2.5
-2.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.8%
47.4%
-
Sack Rate
2.7%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.9%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
46.4%
-
NYPP
6.9
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
25.6
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
18.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.2%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.6%
40.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
66.1
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.9%
50.9%
-
Succ Rate
45.3%
47.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.6%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
27.6
-
Run Ratio
40.2%
40.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
25.9
-
Game Control
1.4
-1.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
8.8% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
68.8% /
45.2% |
9.4% /
19.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
59 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
54.5% /
47.5% |
12.9% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
52.5% |
26.3 /
28.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
46 – 27 W |
7.8 |
47.5% /
39.5% |
2.5% /
5.3% |
2.6% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
6.2 |
40.5% /
34.6% |
24.3% /
26.9% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
77 /
64 |
43.5% /
41.7% |
44.2% /
37.5% |
55.6% /
46.7% |
6.9 /
4.7 |
3.9% /
1.6% |
48.1% /
40.6% |
31.8 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
MIN |
10 – 22 L |
-0.7 |
34.1% /
43.3% |
18.2% /
6.7% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.1 |
46.4% /
30.8% |
7.1% /
34.6% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
72 /
56 |
41.5% /
45.0% |
38.9% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
6.6% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
46.4% |
24.0 /
29.9 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
33 – 48 L |
-11.4 |
53.1% /
57.5% |
2.0% /
7.5% |
4.2% /
2.7% |
6.7 /
12.0 |
46.7% /
37.0% |
26.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
67 |
53.2% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.3% |
36.0% /
63.0% |
5.9 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
40.3% |
23.9 /
20.9 |
| 5 |
TB |
14 – 17 L |
-1.6 |
64.3% /
53.1% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
68.0% /
36.8% |
12.0% /
28.9% |
5.4 /
3.0 |
53 /
70 |
72.7% /
47.2% |
66.0% /
44.3% |
52.9% /
31.3% |
7.8 /
4.5 |
3.8% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
54.3% |
23.9 /
31.1 |
| 6 |
@NO |
38 – 41 L |
-11.3 |
49.0% /
61.2% |
4.1% /
2.0% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
6.2 /
9.4 |
50.0% /
47.6% |
10.7% /
19.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
77 /
70 |
54.0% /
58.5% |
49.4% /
57.1% |
18.9% /
51.4% |
5.3 /
7.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
30.0% |
32.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
ARI |
30 – 20 W |
15.7 |
42.9% /
51.9% |
3.6% /
14.8% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.4 /
5.9 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
22.2% /
40.0% |
3.9 /
2.4 |
64 /
64 |
50.0% /
54.9% |
48.4% /
51.6% |
48.1% /
12.4% |
5.5 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
15.6% |
34.1 /
24.0 |
| 9 |
@LA |
13 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.2% /
44.0% |
13.5% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
23.1% /
35.3% |
34.6% /
17.6% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
63 /
67 |
34.8% /
44.0% |
34.9% /
41.8% |
28.2% /
32.7% |
3.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
25.4% |
28.5 /
23.4 |
| 10 |
KC |
17 – 20 L |
7.9 |
47.5% /
36.6% |
5.0% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
36.7% /
45.0% |
26.7% /
10.0% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
70 /
61 |
43.4% /
43.8% |
42.9% /
39.3% |
29.8% /
24.2% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
32.8% |
20.3 /
30.6 |
| 11 |
NO |
23 – 20 W |
8.6 |
37.1% /
55.3% |
5.7% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
4.9 /
5.6 |
29.6% /
42.3% |
44.4% /
19.2% |
1.9 /
4.2 |
62 /
73 |
31.1% /
55.4% |
33.9% /
50.7% |
42.6% /
29.0% |
3.6 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.5% /
35.6% |
36.8 /
23.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
35 – 34 W |
-4.0 |
48.6% /
58.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
10.2 |
57.7% /
54.5% |
23.1% /
18.2% |
6.4 /
4.0 |
63 /
63 |
55.8% /
60.8% |
52.4% /
57.1% |
56.4% /
58.4% |
7.7 /
8.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
41.3% /
34.9% |
28.6 /
19.7 |
| 2 |
ATL |
28 – 35 L |
-2.8 |
58.7% /
65.7% |
2.2% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
11.1 |
60.0% /
51.7% |
8.0% /
13.8% |
6.2 /
4.8 |
71 /
64 |
63.2% /
61.1% |
59.2% /
59.4% |
30.8% /
50.2% |
6.4 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
45.3% |
19.3 /
28.2 |
| 3 |
@TEN |
17 – 10 W |
6.7 |
44.4% /
32.4% |
2.8% /
2.9% |
2.9% /
6.1% |
6.8 /
6.2 |
26.9% /
58.6% |
19.2% /
13.8% |
4.8 /
6.2 |
62 /
63 |
38.3% /
52.0% |
37.1% /
44.4% |
49.3% /
35.6% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
41.9% /
46.0% |
26.3 /
19.6 |
| 4 |
@BAL |
28 – 27 W |
4.6 |
42.9% /
39.6% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
20.0% /
53.8% |
25.0% /
7.7% |
3.2 /
5.0 |
55 /
79 |
40.0% /
48.3% |
34.5% /
44.3% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
1.3% |
36.4% /
32.9% |
37.2 /
28.0 |
| 5 |
SD |
34 – 31 W |
-0.1 |
41.9% /
56.3% |
7.0% /
6.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
7.0 /
11.0 |
56.0% /
42.1% |
24.0% /
31.6% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
68 /
51 |
49.1% /
54.8% |
47.1% /
51.0% |
44.0% /
62.4% |
5.7 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
3.9% |
36.8% /
37.3% |
37.5 /
29.3 |
| 6 |
KC |
10 – 26 L |
-5.9 |
51.4% /
62.5% |
5.7% /
4.2% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
52.9% /
52.4% |
29.4% /
11.9% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
52 /
66 |
57.5% /
61.2% |
51.9% /
56.1% |
15.4% /
45.8% |
5.5 /
6.2 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
63.6% |
25.5 /
37.4 |
| 7 |
@JAC |
33 – 16 W |
9.5 |
35.1% /
31.8% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
5.4 /
5.4 |
50.0% /
29.4% |
22.2% /
17.6% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
73 /
61 |
44.0% /
32.6% |
42.5% /
31.1% |
42.8% /
59.4% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.3% /
27.9% |
40.2 /
21.7 |
| 8 |
@TB |
30 – 24 W |
-2.4 |
41.0% /
35.3% |
3.3% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
4.9 |
45.8% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
85 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.9% |
42.4% /
44.3% |
59.7% /
20.0% |
7.4 /
4.4 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
28.2% /
44.3% |
24.1 /
26.5 |
| 9 |
DEN |
30 – 20 W |
8.3 |
42.4% /
38.5% |
6.1% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
25.0% |
10.9% /
33.3% |
4.8 /
2.8 |
79 /
51 |
53.3% /
38.5% |
46.8% /
35.3% |
33.8% /
61.5% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
58.2% /
23.5% |
36.7 /
19.4 |
| 11 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
-0.3 |
51.6% /
53.7% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
3.2% /
2.6% |
9.5 /
5.6 |
22.7% /
48.5% |
22.7% /
21.2% |
1.5 /
3.8 |
53 /
74 |
44.4% /
51.8% |
39.6% /
51.4% |
54.4% /
30.2% |
6.2 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
41.5% /
44.6% |
30.2 /
29.3 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
Oakland Raiders