Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been categorized as “NFL”
I have decided to release one of my NFL futures Best Bets a bit early since I think the line is likely to move against us. The play below is being posted at no charge but other season win total Best Bets will be reserved for subscribers. My NFL Best Bets are a very profitable 222-166-2 (57.2%) the …
I have decided to release one of my NFL season win totals a bit early since I think the line is likely to move against me. The play below is being posted at no charge but other season win total Best Bets will be reserved for subscribers. My NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) the last 3 seasons since I …
Pittsburgh Steelers Market Implied Wins: 10.2 The Steelers won 13 games last season but stumbled in the playoffs, a familiar feeling as of late. The Ben Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh can be split into two sections: his first 7 years averaging 11 wins per season with 3 AFC Titles and the second half of his career averaging 10.4 wins per …
Jacksonville Jaguars Market Implied Wins: 9.1 The Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game in 2017 on the back of their defense, which ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed. The Jacksonville stop unit was led up front by Calais Campbell and earned the nickname Sacksonville with an 8.8% sack rate (2nd). However, much of the damage was against backup quarterbacks and …
New England Patriots Market Implied Wins: 11.2 The Patriots reached the Super Bowl for the second straight season in 2017 but fell victim to their roller coaster secondary in the end. Bill Belichick’s defenses play a ‘bend but don’t break’ scheme finishing top 8 in yards allowed per point allowed in all but one of the last 15 seasons, including …
Los Angeles Chargers Market Implied Wins: 9.1 It’s fair to say the 2017 Chargers were defined by their kicking, an obvious rarity even in a sport called football. Los Angeles was 1-4 in games decided by 3 points including late field goal misses in the first two weeks of the season. The Chargers converted just two-thirds of their field goal attempts, …
New Orleans Saints Market Implied Wins: 9.4 The 2017 season ended in heartbreak for New Orleans as they were on the wrong side of the first ever fourth-quarter walk-off touchdown in NFL playoff history. However, last season’s Saints return almost all their key contributors including up front in the trenches. New Orleans was one of four offensive lines in the …
Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that …
Los Angeles Rams Market Implied Wins: 9.7 Head Coach Sean McVay achieved an incredibly successful debut season, moving the Rams from 30th in my end-of-year 2016 ratings to 3rd last season with an improvement of 14 points. McVay seemed to get the best out of quarterback Jared Goff, who is still on his rookie deal, and his $7.6 million …
Turnovers are one of the most telling statistics in football but turnovers are also highly deceptive. An average team with a turnover margin of +10 would likely make the playoffs with a 10-6 record while an average team with a -10 turnover margin over their 16 game schedule would likely finish with a 6-10 mark. That statement is based …
