Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that already have a win under their belt, which makes them even less likely to care about winning.
Teams playing their 2nd preseason game that lost their preseason opener are 97-54-3 Against The Spread (ATS) since 1994 when facing teams coming off a win in their preseason opener.
Situations are only meaningful if they make sense and that’s a pretty solid situation that makes sense to me since it speaks to a team’s motivation, which is a key factor in preseason games.
A subset of that situation is an even better 57-13- 1 ATS and I’ve posted the qualifying plays each of the last 4 years. The qualifying games are not likely continue to win at such a high percentage but the record the last 4 years since I started posting the plays is 12-3, including 4-2 last season. Let’s hope for more of the same this year.
This year’s qualifying plays to that 57-13-1 ATS subset are:
Saturday, August 19
Tennessee (-2 ½) over Carolina
Kansas City (+2) over Cincinnati
Monday, August 21
NY Giants (+1 ½) over Cleveland
Note: The lines on these games have moved since I published this on Tuesday morning so some of the value is gone.
The only preseason games I play are based on this angle, as my time in August is better spent gearing up for the regular season.
Dr. Bob Sports 2016 Football Best Bets: 148-107 (58%)
The new NFL play-by-play model was incredibly good last season at 100-69 against the number on Best Bets (66-26 on sides and 34-43 on totals) while my College Football Best Bets were a profitable 48-38 (including season win totals) despite some bad luck on close games (just 12-23 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer).
You can view my Past Performance page for more details.
For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.