The 2018 football season is about to begin and I’m looking forward to another profitable year (my Football and Basketball Best Bets were a combined +58.65 Stars of profit). Below is a sport by sport recap of the services I provide at Dr. Bob Sports.
I also offer plenty of Free (and profitable) analysis each week during football season and each day during the basketball season (see below for details).
Dr Bob College Football
My College Football Best Bets are 2038-1679-64 (55%) on a Star Basis for +219.6 Stars Since 1999 (+222.7 Stars on Sides, -32.7 Stars on Totals, and +29.6 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 637-560-15 (578-498-14 on Sides and 59-62-1 on Totals).
My 2017 College Best Bets were a decent 56-47-2 but I feel my level of handicapping was better than that record. My 101 Best Bets (excluding the 4 season win totals) combined to cover by a total of 229 points, which is an average of +2.3 points, despite my side Best Bets being -9 in fumble margin, which is random and worth about 36 points. A line differential of +2.3 points would normally equate to a win percentage of 56.1% winners, which is the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2016.
Dr Bob Sports NFL
2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model. Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.
The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results (21-10-1 on Best Bets the last 10 weeks of the season). Work was done this summer to fine tune the model and the back-tested results were very good – particularly on totals, which have underperformed the last two seasons. I am very excited about the improvement to the play-by-play predictive model and look forward to a profitable 2018 season.
2016-17 NFL Best Bets were 137-101-2 (57.6%) – 92-48-2 on sides, 44-48 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 0-1 team totals, 0-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-17 NFL Strong Opinions were 92-71-4 (56.4%) – 41-43-3 sides, 43-27-1 totals, 1-0 1st-half totals, 7-1 Super Bowl prop bets.
2017 NFL Best Bets were 37-32-2 (26-22-2 sides, 10-5 totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 0-1 team totals, 0-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals) and Strong Opinions were 28-19 (14-13 sides, 7-4 totals, 1-1 1st-half totals, 6-1 Super Bowl prop bets).
Dr Bob Basketball
The 2017-18 Basketball season as very profitable, as my Best Bets were a combined +57.8 Stars of profit.
My Basketball Best Bets (College and NBA) are a very profitable +406.2 Stars (at -110 odds) the last 20 years and I’m 54.2% winners on my Basketball Best Bets over 30 years for an average profit of +29.5 Stars.
My 2017-18 College Basketball Best Bets were a very profitable 211-167-7 and 348-257-8 on a Star Basis (6-7 on 3-Stars, 125-76-1 on 2-Stars and 80-84-6 on 1-Stars) for +65.3 Stars at -110 odds.
A big part of that success was due to releasing the majority of my Best Bets early in the day. After years of losing line value by releasing plays later in the day I made the decision prior to last season to release the majority of my Best Bets before the major betting syndicates got to the soft morning lines. That change allowed me to not only get better line value to but also find more games with a positive expected value. The quality of the Best Bets was also enhanced by a more accurate ratings method to assess line value, which particularly helped me early in the season.
My NBA Best Bets were 112-104-2 and 198-188-4 on a Star Basis (12-10 on 3-Stars, 62-64-2 on 2-Stars, 38-30 on 1-Stars) for -7.5 Stars at -110 odds, including an extra -0.2 Stars in extra juice, -0.5 Stars on a money line play and +2.0 Stars in playoff series plays. I started the season slowly but rallied down the stretch by going 18-11 on playoff Best Bets (30-15 on a Star Basis) and an additional +2.0 Stars on Playoff series bets/futures for a total of +15.5 Stars in the playoffs.
NBA Guru Basketball
The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 792-667-23 and a profit of +126.9 Stars in 6 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports.
The 2017-18 season was a disappointment for the NBA Guru, as he started the campaign with an 11-23-1 record for -28.6 Stars on his first 35 Best Bets. The performance the rest of the season was a pretty good 134-112-2 for +19.5 Stars despite some bad luck on close games and he nearly got all the way back to even with a very good run in the playoffs.
The NBA Guru finished the 2017-18 season at 145-135-3 (51.8%) on Best Bets (34-41-1 on sides, 59-50 on totals, 25-31-1 on 1st half sides, 27-13-1 on 1st half Totals) and 293-274-6 on a Star Basis (3-4 on 3-Stars, 142-131-3 on 2-Stars) for -9.1 Stars, which include -0.7 Stars in extra juice.
However, the Guru’s level of handicapping was certainly better than his results, as his Best Bets covered the line by a combined 451.5 points (on 283 Best Bets, excluding -55 points due to overtime). Normally an average cover margin of 1.60 ppg in the NBA would equate to a win percentage 55.8% (taking into account the distribution of type of play).
The difference between the NBA Guru’s profitable level of handicapping (55.8%) and his actual win percentage (51.8%) was due to an incredibly unlucky record in close games and games decided by overtime. His Best Bets were just 16-28-3 on games decided by 2 points or less rather than around 50% as expected (he was a combined 34-35-12 the previous 3 seasons on close games). The difference between being 22-22-3 in those close games instead of 16-28 is 26.2 Stars. The NBA Guru was also unlucky in going 1-3 on games decided due to overtime instead of 3-1 on those games, which is a difference of 8.4 Stars.
That’s a swing of 34.6 Stars due to poor luck, which is the major reason for the down season. However, the NBA Guru’s level of handicapping remains positive and his +126.9 Stars of profit in 6 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports is a better indication of his level of handicapping.
The NBA Guru is very optimistic about next season. He started tracking a few new very unique metrics this past season that have showed promise. Now, with a decent enough sample size he intends to implement them into his handicapping process next season after using those metrics in the playoffs (30-16-1 on playoff Best Bets).
The Guru also intends to release more plays in the morning next season to do a better job of beating the markets to the good numbers.
Each week during the season I will continue to provide free information on about 50-60 NFL and College games each week.
The Free analysis in the College Football section has been a profitable 1329-1158-56 ATS on all games the last 5 years, including 470-392-19 (54.5%) on games with a predicted difference of 4 points or more from the line.
My Basketball Free Analysis is 445-376-12 (54.2%) the last three seasons and is profitable over 11 seasons since I’ve been posting Free Analysis in basketball.
I hope you have enjoyed the free analysis in previous seasons and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. Even if you’re not a gambler you can gain insight into your favorite teams by visiting my Free Analysis pages.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] (or just reply to this email).
p.s. Follow me on twitter (@drbobsports) for weekly trends and updates on free plays.