Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NY Jets (+6) over MIAMI

• Aaron Rodgers has struggled against the blitz all season with a yards per attempt that is 86% of his ypa against a standard pass rush (30th) and it’s unlikely to get better on Sunday with starting RT Morgan Moses and LT Tyron Smith likely out versus a Dolphins’ defense with a 37% blitz rate (7th-highest).
• New York’s running backs have a 20% target share (5th-highest) and Rodgers’s only option will be quick check-downs as Miami’s defense is surrendering a 50% receiving success rate to opposing RBs (27th).
• Miami’s starting nickelback Kader Kohou got a concussion last week but the Dolphins will likely be getting back starting CB Kendall Fuller, who is conceding just 0.76 yards per cover snap (9th).
• Miami’s offensive line ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency because Tua Tagovailoa has a league-low 2.32 second average time to throw and getting the ball out fast will negate this Jets pass rush with a 40% pressure rate (2nd).
• New York CB Sauce Gardner led the NFL with 3 forced incompletions last week, but he is unlikely to suit up on Sunday. The two-time All-Pro is worth 1.5 points according to our metrics.
• The Dolphins are averaging a league-high 61% more yppp versus Cover 1 than other coverages and Tagovailoa has a favorable matchup as the Jets have the 4th-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Miami’s offense has a tendency to use heavy personnel with 39% of the formations containing just 2 WRs (3rd-most) and Mike McDaniel will continue calling for multiple tight ends and fullbacks as New York’s defense is allowing 31% more yppp versus only 2 wide receivers than other formations (26th).
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 47.6 points, and while the matchups favor Miami the situation favors the Jets, who apply to a 198-91-6 ATS road underdog situation.

The Jets are a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.