Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Buffalo Team Total Over (26)

Lean – BUFFALO (-6/-6.5) over San Francisco

• Jordan Elliott, San Francisco’s best run defender on the defensive line, is out along with top pass rusher Nick Bosa, who leads the NFL with 5.2 pressures per game.
• Bills’ LT Dion Dawkins ranks 18th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will limit the remaining threat edge defender Leonard Floyd, who has 40 pressures (14th).
• The 49ers defense will get back CB Charvarius Ward, but starting CB Deommodore Lenoir is out, meaning backup CB Renardo Green will be on the field again. Green surrendered 10.2 yards per target last week in Green Bay.
• Buffalo’s offense will be without TE Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging 1.60 yards per route run (7th). However, Josh Allen wouldn’t have been featuring TEs in this game anyway as San Francisco’s defense is conceding a 46% success rate to opposing tight ends (7th).
• I expect Allen to attack backup cornerback Green with WR Amari Cooper, who is averaging 2.03 yards per route run since being traded to the Bills.
• The 49ers will have Brock Purdy back on the field Sunday night and he has a favorable matchup as San Francisco’s offense is averaging 10% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage than man this season (10th) and Buffalo’s defense has an 82% zone rate (6th-highest).
• Furthermore, the 49ers have a 72% motion rate (3rd-highest) and the Bills are surrendering 10% more yppp against motion than no motion (29th).
• Buffalo’s defense is surrendering 4.9 yards per rush (30th) but the run defense will likely improve with the season debut for LB Matt Milano. Milano will also upgrade the Bills defense in coverage as they are surrendering a worse-than-average 0.06 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• San Francisco’s offense will be without starting offensive linemen LG Aaron Banks and LT Trent Williams, who ranks 18th in pass-blocking efficiency. Banks is allowing a 5.4% pressure rate, and his backup Ben Bartch has only 7 snaps this season but surrendered a 6.2% pressure rate last season.
• The Bills are coming off their bye week and they apply to a 90-33-5 ATS favorite off a bye with positive momentum situation.
• Our model makes Buffalo an 8.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.4 points. There is value on Buffalo and on the over so the best play is the Bills’ Team Total Over.

The Buffalo Team Total Over is a Strong Opinion at 26.5 or less. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is Buffalo at -6.5 or less.