Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Baltimore

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (50.5)

• This total shot up from an opener of 48 when it seemed like Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson would miss this game after he picked up a neck stinger late last week and did not return. However, Hendrickson is expected to suit up this week and he ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Cincinnati’s defensive line will also likely be getting reinforcements in the form of last year’s first-round edge rusher Myles Murphy and interior defender BJ Hill, who led the Bengals with 18 run stops last season. Hill will be a principal component for Cincinnati to contain Baltimore’s ground game.
• The Bengals have the 8th-highest man-coverage rate and they will limit Lamar Jackson, whose yards per attempt against man is only 77% of his yards per attempt against zone coverage (27th).
• Jackson won’t have his straightforward check-downs to bail him out. Ravens RB Justice Hill has a 56% receiving success rate (2nd) but Cincinnati’s defense is allowing -0.25 EPA/target to opposing running backs (5th).
• Baltimore’s defense had 3 sacks last Sunday night, but Joe Burrow has just a 26.0% pressure rate (2nd) and the Bengals’ offensive line should give him enough time to find his receivers.
• Burrow is targeting tight ends on 29.0% of passes (2nd-most) and he has a favorable matchup as the Ravens are allowing 0.32 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (25th).
• Our model favors the Bengals by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of just 46.0 points.

Cincinnati is a 1-Star Best Bet at +2 or more and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 49 points or more.