Game Analysis

CHICAGO (-4) vs Carolina

• Carolina’s defense will likely be down 5 starters this week as they’re missing both interior defenders, both linebackers, and safety Jordan Fuller. However, the Panthers can possibly limit Chicago’s offense with scheme.
• Caleb Williams’ yards per attempt versus the blitz is only 57% of his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush and his yppp versus single-high coverages is just 77% of his yppp against two-high safeties. Carolina’s defense has a 37.3% blitz rate (8th-highest) and a 51.2% single-high safety rate (5th-highest).
• The best answer for the Bears is to lean on RB D’Andre Swift, who had 165 scrimmage yards last week after a slow start to the season (he averaged just 38 scrimmage yards in the first three games).
• Carolina’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.60 EPA/target to opposing running backs and Swift leads RBs with a 72% success rate.
• Andy Dalton should have time in the pocket versus Chicago’s defense as Damien Lewis looks like he will be back in uniform this week and he leads all guards in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Panthers RT Taylor Moton ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency and he will limit edge rusher Montez Sweat, who leads the Bears with 11 pressures.
• Chicago interior defender Gervon Dexter has 9 pressures (19th) but he will be contained by RG Robert Hunt, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Bears by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.7 points, but I decided to use Carolina in my pool based on a 77-29-5 ATS situation.