Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (38.5) – CLEVELAND (-3/2.5) vs Baltimore

· Deshaun Watson has averaged -0.066 EPA/play in his first two starts and I do not expect him to make a major leap in a windy game against the best defense in the NFL according to our metrics.

· The Ravens have a 7.77% sack rate (7th) and Watson is holding onto the ball too long, as he’s averaging 3.07 seconds before throwing.

· Baltimore cornerback Marlon Humphrey ranks 16th in coverage grade by PFF and he will shut down wide receiver Amari Cooper.

· Browns TE David Njoku caught seven passes for 59 yards and a touchdown last week, but the Ravens have plenty of safeties to limit Njoku with Marcus Williams coming back in the fold against Pittsburgh. Baltimore’s defense conceded just 33 yards on 6 targets to Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth last week.

· Cleveland’s offense is averaging -0.002 EPA/rush (9th) but they will be shut down on the ground as the Ravens are conceding a league-low 26.9% rush success rate since trading for linebacker Roquan Smith in week 9.

· It looks like Tyler Huntley will be under center for Baltimore, but there is a chance he is held out with a concussion, which would lead to rookie Anthony Brown starting and a drop in the total.

· Brown is at least 2 points worse than Huntley according to our algorithm.

· The Ravens are going to use the running game almost exclusively regardless of the quarterback because the Browns are allowing a 45% success rate on the ground (30th).

· Our model makes Cleveland a 0.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 34.3 points, but the Ravens apply to a 49-124-5 ATS situation and I used the Browns in my spread pool.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 37.5 points or more.