Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Tennessee (+6.5) vs LA Chargers (London)

This game will be in London and we saw the effects jet lag can have on the players last week. The Seahawks traveled on Wednesday giving their players just enough time to adjust, while the Raiders didn’t leave until Thursday evening and Seattle ended up covering the game by 3 touchdowns. The Chargers stayed in Cleveland after beating the Browns last Sunday and will travel on Thursday night, but they won’t be at a disadvantage since the Titans will also travel on Thursday night. Both teams should experience jet lag to the same extent, but it probably adds variance in projecting this game.

The Titans conceded a 42.3% sack rate last week to the Ravens, the highest of any team dating back to 1965. Marcus Mariota certainly deserves some of the blame as the average time of those sacks was 4.6 seconds after the snap (NFL average time to throw is 2.5 seconds). It’s easier to fix a quarterback’s release time than a porous offensive line and I don’t think we’ll see Mariota take nearly as many sacks this Sunday, especially considering Tennessee should be looking to expose the Chargers’ weak rush defense. The Titans have the 7th-highest adjusted rushing rate in the NFL according to our numbers and they are likely to focus on the ground game versus a Los Angeles run defense rated 27th.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have our 2nd-graded ground game and put up 246 rushing yards on a Cleveland rush defense that came into last week ranked 5th. Tennessee’s rush defense ranks 9th and the Chargers will hope to continue their successful rushing attack, as passing to their running backs is likely to be difficult. The Chargers target running backs on 31% of passes (3rd-most) with Austin Ekler and Melvin Gordon ranking 1st and 6th respectively in yards per route run, but the Titans surrender just 4.2 yards per target to opposing running backs (3rd).

The Chargers are 4-2 with their only losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, but all of their wins have come against bottom 10 teams in our ratings. The perception of these teams has certainly shifted based on last week’s disparate results (the advanced spread on this game was Chargers by 3), but our model has the Chargers favored by 7.4 points. While the line value is a bit in favor of the Chargers, the situation favors the Titans, who apply to a 48-16-3 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s shutout loss. We’ll pass on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Chargers

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 28.8 33.8
Succ Pass Plays 46.3% 49.6%
Sack Rate 13.0% 6.6%
Int Rate 2.9% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 17.2% 21.2%
Big Pass Yards 30.1% 30.6%
NYPP 5.6 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 26.7 29.3
RB YPR 3.1 4.2
Stuff Rate 24.0% 19.4%
Succ Rush Plays 41.1% 45.9%
Big Rush Yards 32.8% 40.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.4

Game

All Snaps 55.5 63.2
Early Down Succ 42.7% 47.7%
Succ Rate 43.2% 46.9%
Big Yards Rate 31.6% 35.3%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 32.5 30.8
Run Ratio 48.6% 47.5%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 29.7
Game Control -2.3 2.3

Points 14.0 17.8

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.0 36.2
Succ Pass Plays 55.5% 50.4%
Sack Rate 4.4% 7.3%
Int Rate 1.5% 3.9%
Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 21.1%
Big Pass Yards 46.3% 59.2%
NYPP 8.8 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 28.5 23.5
RB YPR 5.0 4.0
Stuff Rate 24.2% 25.6%
Succ Rush Plays 46.4% 53.1%
Big Rush Yards 62.1% 36.0%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 4.0

Game

All Snaps 61.5 59.7
Early Down Succ 54.5% 51.7%
Succ Rate 50.3% 51.7%
Big Yards Rate 52.0% 54.4%
Yards Per Play 6.8 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 29.1
Run Ratio 47.1% 39.1%
Starting Field Pos 31.7 26.1
Game Control 2.9 -2.9

Points 29.2 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6
3	@JAC	9 – 6 W	1.5	45.8% / 37.8%	12.5% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.5 / 3.9	42.9% / 52.6%	25.7% / 15.8%	4.3 / 4.6	59 / 56	47.7% / 46.3%	44.1% / 42.9%	34.3% / 10.3%	3.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	59.3% / 33.9%	28.2 / 23.3
4	PHI	26 – 23 W	-2.6	47.8% / 46.3%	6.5% / 7.4%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.8	39.1% / 36.4%	34.8% / 13.6%	3.1 / 5.3	69 / 76	47.9% / 45.9%	44.9% / 43.4%	38.9% / 41.0%	5.8 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.3%	33.3% / 28.9%	24.4 / 28.0
5	@BUF	12 – 13 L	-2.6	81.3% / 63.6%	12.5% / 9.1%	7.1% / 10.0%	7.6 / 7.2	56.0% / 46.5%	16.0% / 20.9%	4.0 / 3.3	41 / 54	51.2% / 43.8%	65.9% / 50.0%	29.0% / 18.8%	5.4 / 4.1	4.9% / 0.0%	61.0% / 79.6%	30.2 / 34.8
6	BAL	0 – 21 L	-13.2	26.9% / 45.9%	42.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	2.0 / 6.4	28.6% / 44.4%	35.7% / 27.8%	3.9 / 3.4	40 / 73	33.3% / 37.7%	27.5% / 45.2%	42.5% / 44.5%	2.7 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.0% / 49.3%	21.9 / 29.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	28 – 38 L	-9.6	55.8% / 46.4%	1.9% / 3.6%	2.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 9.1	59.1% / 59.3%	18.2% / 25.9%	5.6 / 3.9	74 / 55	61.3% / 55.6%	56.8% / 52.7%	45.1% / 66.0%	7.3 / 6.6	1.4% / 0.0%	29.7% / 49.1%	20.1 / 29.1
2	@BUF	31 – 20 W	14.5	65.5% / 36.8%	6.9% / 13.2%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.3 / 5.5	33.3% / 54.5%	40.7% / 31.8%	4.1 / 3.8	56 / 60	55.6% / 45.7%	50.0% / 43.3%	44.0% / 59.0%	6.3 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	48.2% / 36.7%	36.5 / 26.7
3	@LA	23 – 35 L	-9.0	40.6% / 59.5%	6.3% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.7 / 9.5	60.0% / 62.2%	30.0% / 10.8%	7.1 / 4.7	52 / 74	45.9% / 62.7%	48.1% / 60.8%	62.9% / 45.5%	6.8 / 7.1	3.8% / 1.4%	38.5% / 50.0%	26.6 / 22.8
4	SF	29 – 27 W	-2.8	47.5% / 52.6%	2.5% / 2.6%	2.6% / 5.4%	6.1 / 7.6	35.5% / 38.1%	12.9% / 28.6%	4.2 / 3.6	71 / 59	50.0% / 48.9%	42.3% / 47.5%	47.4% / 46.4%	5.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 35.6%	41.3 / 22.5
5	OAK	26 – 10 W	9.9	78.3% / 68.0%	4.3% / 12.0%	0.0% / 4.5%	14.5 / 9.9	27.3% / 61.5%	30.3% / 23.1%	2.5 / 3.2	56 / 38	45.5% / 55.6%	48.2% / 65.8%	43.4% / 59.5%	7.4 / 7.6	0.0% / 2.6%	58.9% / 34.2%	35.3 / 21.2
6	@CLE	38 – 14 W	14.7	45.5% / 39.2%	4.5% / 9.8%	4.8% / 4.3%	9.2 / 4.2	63.2% / 42.9%	13.2% / 33.3%	6.5 / 4.9	60 / 72	68.8% / 41.5%	56.7% / 40.3%	69.2% / 50.2%	7.5 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	63.3% / 29.2%	30.5 / 34.2

Tennessee Titans vs

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Oct 21

6:30 AM Pacific

Game Analysis