Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NY JETS (-1.5) over Miami

• We had to take this one down to the final hour to see if interior defender Quinnen Williams and right tackle Morgan Moses would be on the field for the Jets. Williams is worth 4% in win probability and Moses is worth 2% according to our numbers. Williams is in and Moses is out making this a Strong Opinion but not quite a Best Bet.
• The Dolphins need a win to have a shot at a playoff birth but I believe Aaron Rodgers will play spoiler in possibly the last start of his career.
• Rodgers is averaging 27% more yppp versus Cover 2 than against other coverages (3rd) and he has a favorable matchup as Miami’s defense has the 3rd-highest Cover 2 rate.
• Rodgers had a 56% success rate against the Dolphins in week 14 and averaged 0.38 EPA/play with no interceptions.
• Rodgers has done a great job taking care of the ball all year as the Jets are one of three offenses with a turnover-worthy throw rate of less than 2%.
• Miami’s defense will be without starting CB Kendall Fuller, who is worth 0.7 points and is allowing 0.11 yards per cover snap fewer than backup cornerback Storm Duck.
• The Dolphins will have Tyler Huntley making his fifth start this week. Miami’s offense is averaging 14.3 points per game in his previous four starts.
• The Dolphins will need to reach 20 points to win this game and the only instance they’ve done so with Huntley was last week, but it required making a 54-yard field goal and a perfect scoring percentage in the red zone.
• Our model favors New York by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 42.0 points, and the Jets apply to a 53-21-2 ATS last game situation that plays on teams out of playoff contention.

The Jets are a Strong Opinion at -2 or less.