Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+8) over ATLANTA

• The Falcons need a win and a Buccaneers loss to win the NFC South and make the postseason.
• Carolina’s defense surrendered 48 points last week as they are now down 5 starters from the preseason. The Panthers are also likely missing four starters on offense from the beginning of September most notably RT Taylor Moton, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Carolina’s yards per attempt against zone coverage is just 88% of their yards per attempt against man (31st) and Bryce Young will struggle as Atlanta’s defense has an 81% zone rate (6th-highest).
• The Falcons have the 4th-highest Cover 4 rate and the Panthers’ yppp versus Cover 4 is only 70% of the yppp against other coverages.
• Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 0.15 EPA/target (2nd) but I don’t believe Atlanta’s screen game is going to kill Carolina’s defense as they are surrendering a 55% success rate to opposing WRs and TEs but allowing just a 45% receiving success rate to running backs.
• The Falcons are averaging 15% more yppp versus middle field closed coverages (5th) and Michael Penix has a favorable matchup as the Panthers defense has a 52% single-high safety rate (6th-highest).
• Our model makes Atlanta a 7.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.7 and the Falcons apply to a 17-62 ATS home favorite situation.