Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tampa Bay Team Total Under (29.5)

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is New Orleans (+14.5) at +14 or more.

Lean – New Orleans (+14.5) over TAMPA BAY

• It initially sounded possible the Saints would have Derek Carr and WR Chris Olave back for this game, but it will be Spencer Rattler under center on Sunday.
• Rattler has averaged just 4.6 yppp and New Orleans has failed to eclipse 10 points in four of his 5 starts. Thus, we’re going to take the Team Total here rather than backing the Saints side.
• There’s a clear premium put on the Buccaneers this week as 14.5-point favorites as they need to win in order to make the playoffs. This is higher than the price we saw the Packers lay against the Saints two weeks ago. Tampa Bay has consistently been rated about 4.5 points below than Green Bay in market for the last month so this line is inflated due to need but needing to win doesn’t make teams play better, as if a team could play better whenever they needed to they wouldn’t be in a must win situation.
• The Buccaneers offense will be without TE Cade Otton, who is averaging 1.30 yards per route run (12th) and is worth 0.3 points by our metrics.
• Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White is averaging 1.37 yards per route run (8th) and RB RB Bucky Irving has a league-high 1.83 yards per route run but it isn’t the best matchup for Baker Mayfield screens as the Saints are conceding -0.04 EPA/target to opposing running backs (8th).
• The fair line on this game should be Buccaneers by 11.0 points with a predicted total of 44.1.

The Tampa Bay Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion at 28.5 points or more. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is New Orleans +14 or more.