Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (38) – TENNESSEE (-1.5) vs Houston

• The Texans are locked into the 4 seed in the AFC but head coach DeMeco Ryans has no plans to sit anybody out on Sunday.
• It has the potential to help our under if Houston ultimately decides to bench CJ Stroud at some point in this game, but the bet is not based on the idea he will rest.
• These teams met in week 12 and the total closed 41. The game was played indoors with scoring conditions 0.8 points higher than average.
• This game will be outdoors in the rain with wind gusts of 20 mph. Our projection for this game has the weather 4.3 points worse than average.
• Based on the closing total and change in weather, I don’t see how this total can be above 37.
• Furthermore, the Texans offense has lost starting WR Tank Dell and starting RG Shaq Mason since week 12. Those two are worth 1.1 points according to our metrics.
• Houston’s’ offense has struggled against two-high safety shells with a yppp only 88% of the yppp versus single-high coverages (26th). Tennessee’s defense has a 66% two-high coverage rate (3rd-highest).
• Houston’s defense has an 8.2% sack rate, and they will wreak havoc on Mashon Rudolph and Will Levis as both Tennessee quarterbacks are expected to get snaps in this game. The Titans’ offensive line ranks 30th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• These two defenses are atop the NFL in Cover 4 rate and consequently, they are conceding the lowest rate of 10+ yard completion on early downs. The rare scoring drives in this game will be the result of long drawn out sequences that will take time off the clock.
• Our model favors the Texans by 4.5 points, with a predicted total of 32.7 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 37.5 or more (Strong Opinion at 37).