Jacksonville Jaguars @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Jan 5
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 349
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Under (45) – INDIANAPOLIS (-5) vs Jacksonville

  • The Indianapolis defense was embarrassed last week. Drew Lock’s +1.18 EPA/play against the Colts was the 6th best of any QB since 1999.
  • Road favorites who get blown out come back the next week with a more conservative approach. The under is 271-178-8 the following week after a road favorite loses by 10+ and I expect the Indianapolis defense to take out the frustration from last week’s debacle on backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • I expect Joe Flacco to be under center for the Colts offense, but his lack of mobility will be a hindrance given the current state of the Indianapolis offensive line. The Colts rank 31st in pass-blocking efficiency since week 14 after losing starting RT Braden Smith. Indianapolis starting RG Will Fries was already sidelined.
  • Jacksonville edge rusher Travon Walker has 53 pressures (20th) and I expect him to get at least one sack against backups on the right side of the Indianapolis offensive line.
  • Our model favors the Colts by 6.0 with a predicted total of 41.6.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44.5 or more (Strong Opinion Under 44).

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