Game Analysis

Strong Opinion Over (48) – Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH

• The Bengals are allowing just a 23% pressure rate in the 8 games starting LT Orlando Brown has played more than half the snaps this season- compared to surrendering a 37% pressure rate in the 8 games Brown has been injured. Brown will be protecting Joe Burrow on Saturday in the must-win game for Cincinnati.
• The Bengals need a win and losses by the Broncos and Dolphins to reach the postseason.
• Meanwhile, the Steelers can claim the AFC North with a win and Ravens loss, but Pittsburgh will still be incentivized to play starters even if Baltimore wins earlier in the day to go for the 5 seed and a date with Houston in the first round in the playoffs rather than the Ravens.
• Cincinnati’s defense is allowing a 51% receiving success rate to opposing RBs (27th) and they will struggle versus Pittsburgh’s screen game. The Steelers’ running backs have a 24% target share (3rd-highest).
• Russell Wilson will also feature Pittsburgh TE Pat Freiermuth, who is averaging 0.48 EPA/target (4th). The Bengals are surrendering a 58% success rate to opposing tight ends (27th).
• Our model makes Cincinnati a 3.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.0 points.

Strong Opinion on Over 48.5 or less.