Game Analysis

1-Star Arizona Team Total Under ( 23.5 -110)

The alternate play is SF (+4.5 -105) at +4 or more

Lean – San Francisco (+4.5) over ARIZONA

• There is a laundry list of players out for San Francisco’s offense but the defense is nearly at full strength. The 49ers are allowing 5.2 yppl (6th) and we have them as the 8th-rated defense.
• San Francisco edge defenders Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd rank 3rd and 16th,      respectively, in pass rushing efficiency. The duo will put constant pressure on Kyler Murray as Arizona’s offense is without both starting tackles on Sunday.
• Cardinals RB James Conner is averaging 1.54 yards per route run (6th) but he is being shut down after suffering a knee injury and he’s worth 0.3 points by our numbers.
• This game is indoors but the field surface is grass and it is a late-season divisional matchup. Our metrics have the scoring conditions for this game at the season average.
• Arizona’s offense is below average with three starters missing and they get a half-point boost for being at home, but it’s impossible to get to a team total a full point above average here against the 8th-rated defense.
• The Cardinals Team Total should be priced at 22.
• The 49ers offense has a wide range of outcomes in this game and I’m taking them mostly out of the equation on this bet.
• Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Christian McCaffrey, LT Trent Williams, his backup Jaylon Moore, and his backup Spencer Burford are out for the 49ers. Starting LG Aaron Banks will also be sidelined. We have San Francisco’s offense with a 6.1-point deduction but I think it’s reasonable to have anything +/- 3 points.
• Our model favors the Cardinals by 1.9 points, with a predicted total of 39.4 points, and the Niners apply to a 57-10-1 ATS situation.

The Arizona Team Total Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 23 points or more. The alternate play is SF +4.5 at +4 or more.