Game Analysis
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Washington (-7) vs DALLAS
- The Commanders will either be the 6 or 7 seed in the NFC.
- Washington can only be leapfrogged by Green Bay and Dan Quinn said, “We’re going to go after [the 6 seed] as hard as we can”.
- The Commanders aren’t putting all their chips on the table though as they are resting two starters on the offensive line as well as CB Marshon Lattimore. I expect those three to be back on the field in the postseason.
- In theory, the Dallas offense has a favorable matchup. The Cowboys are averaging a league-high 32% more yppp versus Cover 1 compared to other coverages and Washington’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate.
- Cooper Rush averaged 7.3 yppp in the first game against the Commanders. However, Rush might not get all the reps this week. Ian Rapoport reported Trey Lance will see “significant snaps” Sunday.
- Another reason I’m not expecting the same fireworks for the Dallas offense we saw last game against Washington is the Cowboys’ best Cover 1-beating WR CeeDee Lamb is sidelined. Lamb averaged 3.49 yards per route run against man coverage (3rd).
- Our model favors the Commanders by 4.3 with a predicted total of 45.2 but it is with Cooper Rush getting all the snaps. I think this game is priced correctly if Trey Lance is the starter for most of the game.