Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Philadelphia (-1.5) vs NY GIANTS

The Eagles have yet to rediscover the magic of last year’s Super Bowl winning team but their 3 losses have been by an average of just 3.7 points and star quarterback Carson Wentz has improved in each start and it seems he’s trusting his knee again with 5 rushes last week. Pro Bowl TE Zach Ertz leads his position in targets and is 3rd among all receivers and Wentz should have no trouble finding his main aerial weapon in this game as the Giants surrender 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends (8th-most). Eagles’ top rusher Jay Ajayi is out for the season, but we’re making no adjustment to Philadelphia’s offense. Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement both have higher rushing success rates for the Eagles since the start of 2017 and their combined 5.0 ypr this season is also better than Ajayi’s 4.1 ypr average. Our numbers currently rate the Eagles offense 13th and I expect them to improve as the season progresses with a healthy Wentz. Facing our 29^th rated Giants’ defense should certainly help raise the Eagles’ numbers.

The Giants’ offense is actually pretty decent (5.6 yppl is middle of the pack) despite a troubled offensive line. New York actually released former first-round pick Ereck Flowers, who has surrendered the most pressures in the NFL since joining the league in 2015, but the Giants’ offensive line will likely be dominated by Philadelphia’s excellent front 7 tonight. Philly’s Chris Long, Michael Bennett, and Brandon Graham have all recorded more than 20 pressures, the only pass rushing trio in the league to do so, yet the Eagles sack rate is just 5.7% (23rd). The number is certainly lower than it should be based on the talent and the number or pressures and I expect the Eagles to get to the quarterback more often against a Giants offensive line ranked 26th in pass blocking efficiency. New York’s offensive line will also likely be man-handled in the ground game as their 29th-graded rush offense faces an Eagles defense surrendering a rush success rate of just 38% (3rd).

Our ratings favor Philly by 2.6 points in this game and the better team usually performs best on a short week as Thursday favorites are 59% Against the Spread the last 20 seasons (114-79-5 ATS) if the opponent is not off a bye, including 22-11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons (2-0-1 this season). I’ll lean with Philadelphia at -3 points or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Giants

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.8 40.4
Succ Pass Plays 49.8% 50.7%
Sack Rate 8.5% 5.7%
Int Rate 1.1% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 16.7% 19.9%
Big Pass Yards 31.3% 44.8%
NYPP 6.4 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 25.2 20.6
RB YPR 4.5 2.8
Stuff Rate 19.2% 29.5%
Succ Rush Plays 52.6% 38.2%
Big Rush Yards 42.1% 41.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.5

Game

All Snaps 67.0 61.0
Early Down Succ 50.7% 48.7%
Succ Rate 51.2% 45.2%
Big Yards Rate 36.7% 45.9%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 2.3% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.0 27.6
Run Ratio 37.9% 33.9%
Starting Field Pos 25.7 30.0
Game Control -3.2 3.2

Points 20.6 20.8

NYG

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 31.2
Succ Pass Plays 51.3% 50.6%
Sack Rate 8.0% 3.6%
Int Rate 2.3% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 19.9%
Big Pass Yards 29.9% 49.4%
NYPP 7.8 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 20.0 28.6
RB YPR 3.7 3.5
Stuff Rate 30.6% 21.0%
Succ Rush Plays 37.8% 45.4%
Big Rush Yards 61.7% 45.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.3

Game

All Snaps 58.0 59.8
Early Down Succ 43.6% 50.3%
Succ Rate 45.4% 47.8%
Big Yards Rate 37.3% 49.7%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.8 30.2
Run Ratio 35.0% 48.2%
Starting Field Pos 25.7 30.1
Game Control -3.1 3.1

Points 20.8 25.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	18 – 12 W	-0.9	32.4% / 31.9%	5.4% / 8.5%	2.9% / 2.3%	3.2 / 4.8	53.6% / 44.4%	21.4% / 27.8%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	40.4% / 38.8%	41.5% / 35.4%	20.6% / 49.5%	3.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.7%	22.2 / 35.2
2	@TB	21 – 27 L	-11.1	42.0% / 60.0%	6.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.4 / 11.2	54.2% / 25.0%	20.8% / 41.7%	3.8 / 1.8	74 / 59	48.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 45.8%	36.2% / 45.3%	5.6 / 7.4	2.7% / 1.7%	32.4% / 40.7%	25.5 / 27.2
3	IND	20 – 16 W	0.6	47.6% / 39.5%	11.9% / 4.7%	2.7% / 0.0%	5.4 / 3.3	60.0% / 38.5%	28.6% / 23.1%	4.3 / 5.2	77 / 56	55.6% / 45.2%	53.2% / 39.3%	34.0% / 46.9%	4.9 / 3.7	1.3% / 0.0%	45.5% / 23.2%	21.6 / 36.1
4	@TEN	23 – 26 L	2.6	46.3% / 47.8%	7.4% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	5.8 / 7.1	36.4% / 39.1%	13.6% / 34.8%	5.3 / 3.1	76 / 69	45.9% / 47.9%	43.4% / 44.9%	41.0% / 38.9%	5.7 / 5.8	1.3% / 0.0%	28.9% / 33.3%	28.0 / 24.4
5	MIN	21 – 23 L	-7.0	80.8% / 74.2%	11.5% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.9 / 9.6	58.8% / 44.0%	11.8% / 20.0%	4.8 / 3.2	43 / 56	63.6% / 62.5%	72.1% / 60.7%	51.9% / 48.8%	8.5 / 6.7	4.7% / 1.8%	39.5% / 44.6%	30.9 / 27.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	JAC	15 – 20 L	-3.9	28.2% / 44.1%	5.1% / 2.9%	2.7% / 3.0%	5.4 / 4.9	34.8% / 36.7%	30.4% / 16.7%	5.0 / 4.6	62 / 64	31.9% / 46.8%	30.6% / 40.6%	38.0% / 38.8%	5.2 / 4.8	1.6% / 0.0%	37.1% / 46.9%	25.3 / 31.5
2	@DAL	13 – 20 L	-10.5	36.0% / 36.0%	12.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 6.4	47.1% / 59.3%	35.3% / 14.8%	2.1 / 5.2	67 / 52	33.3% / 56.8%	38.8% / 48.1%	18.4% / 48.3%	3.8 / 5.8	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 51.9%	27.9 / 27.6
3	@HOU	27 – 22 W	7.6	60.6% / 53.7%	12.1% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	8.0 / 9.0	32.1% / 42.1%	25.0% / 36.8%	4.1 / 3.1	61 / 60	47.8% / 50.0%	47.5% / 50.0%	41.3% / 53.4%	6.2 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.7%	45.9% / 31.7%	22.2 / 28.9
4	NO	18 – 33 L	-3.5	56.8% / 42.9%	6.8% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.3	50.0% / 48.6%	18.8% / 8.6%	4.1 / 4.9	60 / 70	58.3% / 51.0%	55.0% / 45.7%	29.3% / 55.4%	5.0 / 5.6	3.3% / 0.0%	26.7% / 50.0%	22.5 / 33.9
5	@CAR	31 – 33 L	-5.4	75.0% / 76.2%	4.2% / 4.8%	8.7% / 10.0%	15.9 / 11.0	25.0% / 40.6%	43.8% / 28.1%	3.1 / 3.7	40 / 53	46.7% / 47.1%	55.0% / 54.7%	59.3% / 52.7%	10.8 / 6.6	2.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 60.4%	30.5 / 28.5

Philadelphia Eagles @

New York Giants

Thu, Oct 11

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis