Game Analysis
Lean – New York Jets (+16) over NEW ORLEANS
Lean – Under (47.5)
Josh McCown will miss this game due to injury and I expect the Jets to look like a much different team with Bryce Petty behind center. McCown found success all season long using the deep ball, ranking 3rd in the league with 9 touchdowns of greater than 20 air yards. Petty, however, is just 6 for 22 with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on deep passes in his career and New York’s best receiving threat downfield, Robby Anderson, will likely be stifled by Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Jets will likely attempt to stick with the ground game as long as possible because the Saints rush defense is soft, ranking 29th in my metrics. However, New York is a below average rushing team (3.8 ypr) and I don’t expect them to have much success without keeping the New Orleans’ safeties honest with the passing game. Bryce Petty averages just 4.8 yards per pass play with a 4.9% interception rate for his career and I expect the Jets offense to be about 5 points worse this week with him under center.
Alvin Kamara has been cleared to play this week and I expect the Saints to utilize their top-ranked rush offense heavily in a game – particularly if they have a comfortable lead, which you’d assume given the huge spread on this game. However, New York’s rush defense ranks 8th according to my numbers, so they match up well with a Saints’ attack that has morphed into a run-based attack with two strong backs to carry the load.
The line on this game has adjusted for McCown’s injury but my ratings would favor New Orleans by 16.8 points with Petty at quarterback for the Jets. Still, I’ll lean with New York on the basis of a very good 120-48-3 ATS road underdog blowout bounce-back situation (NYJ lost by 23 points last week). You might be thinking that the Saints will want to take out their frustrations on the Jets after losing last Thursday in Atlanta but history suggests otherwise. Home favorites of more than 14 points are just 7-24-1 ATS if they lost or tied the previous week (since 1980) and New Orleans may be playing more not to lose than to win big.
That conservative approach should also benefit the under and our model projects just 45 points in this game. I’ll lean Under 47 points or higher. I’ll lean Under 47 points or higher and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
44.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.9%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
22.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.1%
42.9%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
29.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
31.8%
28.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.3%
40.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.5%
37.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
62.0
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.3%
44.2%
-
Succ Rate
40.1%
42.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.6%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.8
27.6
-
Run Ratio
44.7%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
29.4
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.2
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.5%
42.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.7%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.9%
41.3%
-
NYPP
7.6
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.9
26.0
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
17.0%
25.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
48.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.0%
46.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
53.5%
47.9%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.8%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.2%
42.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
25.4
-
Game Control
3.5
-3.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% /
43.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
31.3% /
24.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
56 /
75 |
35.9% /
37.7% |
33.9% /
37.3% |
26.5% /
68.1% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
60.0% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% /
64.3% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
61.5% /
40.7% |
19.2% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
55 /
55 |
53.7% /
48.8% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
43.0% /
56.1% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
49.1% |
27.1 /
35.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% /
41.7% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
9.3 /
4.1 |
37.1% /
46.7% |
34.3% /
46.7% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
60 /
63 |
48.9% /
54.2% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
40.1% /
11.6% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.3% /
23.8% |
31.4 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
3.8 |
31.3% /
57.5% |
43.8% /
20.0% |
8.0 /
4.4 |
68 /
76 |
37.3% /
50.8% |
38.2% /
44.7% |
68.6% /
27.6% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
52.6% |
29.5 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% /
45.9% |
9.1% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
19.0% /
45.5% |
33.3% /
18.2% |
1.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
45.9% /
46.3% |
38.9% /
45.7% |
32.1% /
40.1% |
4.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.9% /
47.1% |
29.0 /
30.1 |
| 6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% /
39.5% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
24.0% /
7.7% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
75 /
64 |
50.9% /
49.0% |
49.3% /
48.4% |
46.0% /
29.5% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
40.6% |
24.0 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% /
52.5% |
10.0% /
7.5% |
3.7% /
5.4% |
6.0 /
7.6 |
34.8% /
24.0% |
30.4% /
44.0% |
4.0 /
2.1 |
53 /
65 |
37.5% /
42.3% |
35.8% /
41.5% |
61.9% /
53.8% |
5.2 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
43.4% /
38.5% |
29.3 /
31.2 |
| 8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
8.6% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
8.2 |
22.7% /
37.5% |
36.4% /
28.1% |
2.0 /
4.4 |
57 /
62 |
41.5% /
45.8% |
40.4% /
43.5% |
40.1% /
53.1% |
4.9 /
6.2 |
1.8% /
3.2% |
38.6% /
51.6% |
36.9 /
26.1 |
| 9 |
BUF |
34 – 21 W |
9.6 |
42.9% /
48.9% |
4.8% /
14.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.2 |
38.6% /
27.3% |
29.5% /
40.9% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
65 /
69 |
43.5% /
42.3% |
40.0% /
42.0% |
55.4% /
31.6% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
67.7% /
31.9% |
38.0 /
25.2 |
| 10 |
@TB |
10 – 15 L |
-3.4 |
28.9% /
40.0% |
13.3% /
2.9% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.9 /
5.2 |
21.1% /
28.1% |
42.1% /
28.1% |
2.9 /
2.8 |
64 /
67 |
27.7% /
32.7% |
26.6% /
34.3% |
46.2% /
23.2% |
4.3 /
4.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
47.8% |
19.0 /
36.0 |
| 12 |
CAR |
27 – 35 L |
-3.0 |
48.6% /
29.0% |
8.1% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
38.5% /
39.4% |
26.9% /
36.4% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.7% |
44.4% /
34.4% |
54.5% /
50.5% |
6.2 /
4.7 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
51.6% |
27.7 /
25.3 |
| 13 |
KC |
38 – 31 W |
-0.6 |
58.3% /
54.3% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
10.3 |
43.1% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
3.1 /
10.2 |
87 /
46 |
46.8% /
59.5% |
49.4% /
54.3% |
40.8% /
74.5% |
5.6 /
10.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.6% /
23.9% |
24.0 /
27.2 |
| 14 |
@DEN |
0 – 23 L |
-13.5 |
24.0% /
39.4% |
16.0% /
6.1% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
1.6 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
25.0% |
33.3% /
36.1% |
2.5 /
2.4 |
49 /
69 |
33.3% /
28.6% |
28.6% /
31.9% |
11.9% /
26.3% |
2.1 /
4.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
49.0% /
52.2% |
21.2 /
40.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
19 – 29 L |
-6.6 |
60.5% /
63.6% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.3 |
28.6% /
27.3% |
14.3% /
33.3% |
2.9 /
4.0 |
59 /
66 |
52.1% /
44.7% |
49.2% /
45.5% |
29.9% /
68.0% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
50.0% |
22.4 /
24.9 |
| 2 |
NE |
20 – 36 L |
-14.2 |
51.1% /
61.0% |
2.2% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
10.6 |
47.1% /
51.6% |
11.8% /
22.6% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
62 /
72 |
54.2% /
58.3% |
50.0% /
56.9% |
48.3% /
53.2% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.4% /
43.1% |
27.9 /
27.5 |
| 3 |
@CAR |
34 – 13 W |
8.6 |
46.7% /
43.2% |
3.3% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
7.1 /
4.2 |
55.6% /
77.3% |
25.9% /
4.5% |
5.5 /
6.0 |
57 /
59 |
51.1% /
57.8% |
50.9% /
55.9% |
55.5% /
40.3% |
6.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.4% /
37.3% |
37.8 /
25.2 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
20 – 0 W |
5.5 |
48.8% /
37.5% |
2.4% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
6.4 /
4.0 |
46.4% /
60.0% |
14.3% /
40.0% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
69 /
47 |
46.3% /
52.6% |
47.8% /
44.7% |
46.1% /
31.7% |
5.0 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
31.9% |
28.8 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
DET |
52 – 38 W |
15.8 |
45.2% /
35.1% |
0.0% /
8.8% |
6.5% /
5.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
45.9% /
15.8% |
13.5% /
36.8% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
68 /
76 |
50.9% /
24.6% |
45.6% /
30.3% |
51.7% /
53.3% |
5.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
2.6% |
54.4% /
25.0% |
29.4 /
27.6 |
| 7 |
@GB |
26 – 17 W |
-2.5 |
59.0% /
23.1% |
2.6% /
3.8% |
5.3% /
4.0% |
8.3 /
3.0 |
53.8% /
70.8% |
12.8% /
16.7% |
4.2 /
7.5 |
78 /
50 |
61.4% /
48.7% |
56.4% /
46.0% |
49.2% /
45.4% |
6.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
48.0% |
30.1 /
18.2 |
| 8 |
CHI |
20 – 12 W |
7.8 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
6.7% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
9.5 /
4.4 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
18.2% /
32.3% |
3.2 /
5.1 |
63 /
65 |
52.1% /
36.2% |
42.9% /
38.5% |
57.9% /
61.2% |
6.2 /
4.7 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
52.4% /
47.7% |
30.8 /
24.8 |
| 9 |
TB |
30 – 10 W |
15.2 |
67.9% /
37.5% |
3.6% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
3.5 |
41.7% /
44.0% |
8.3% /
24.0% |
4.3 /
3.5 |
64 /
57 |
57.8% /
43.2% |
53.1% /
40.4% |
49.3% /
13.0% |
6.4 /
3.5 |
3.1% /
1.8% |
56.3% /
43.9% |
26.6 /
31.5 |
| 10 |
@BUF |
47 – 10 W |
17.6 |
44.0% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
7.4 /
4.3 |
62.7% /
40.0% |
11.8% /
46.7% |
5.9 /
4.6 |
76 /
45 |
62.5% /
48.5% |
56.6% /
40.0% |
56.4% /
35.4% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
67.1% /
33.3% |
39.7 /
21.9 |
| 11 |
WAS |
34 – 31 W |
-5.7 |
57.1% /
47.1% |
4.8% /
5.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.8 |
60.9% /
51.5% |
17.4% /
12.1% |
7.0 /
4.7 |
65 /
67 |
62.3% /
50.9% |
58.5% /
49.3% |
54.2% /
47.8% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.4% /
49.3% |
24.3 /
23.4 |
| 12 |
@LA |
20 – 26 L |
-7.2 |
45.7% /
45.8% |
8.6% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
47.1% /
32.1% |
11.8% /
21.4% |
7.2 /
3.3 |
52 /
76 |
52.6% /
49.1% |
46.2% /
40.8% |
51.2% /
61.0% |
6.7 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
36.8% |
21.2 /
26.2 |
| 13 |
CAR |
31 – 21 W |
8.7 |
41.7% /
40.0% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.6 |
31.3% /
52.2% |
28.1% /
17.4% |
4.7 /
4.9 |
68 /
53 |
39.1% /
51.2% |
36.8% /
45.3% |
57.6% /
38.4% |
5.9 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
47.1% /
43.4% |
32.1 /
27.8 |
| 14 |
@ATL |
17 – 20 L |
1.9 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
3.6% |
2.9% /
11.1% |
6.9 /
7.5 |
46.7% /
56.4% |
33.3% /
23.1% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
52 /
67 |
53.7% /
56.9% |
50.0% /
53.7% |
53.6% /
40.9% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
58.2% |
26.6 /
24.0 |
New York Jets
@ 
New Orleans Saints