Game Analysis
LA Rams (-10) vs DETROIT
Lean Rams at -9.5 or less.
The Rams are heavy favorites to clinch the NFC West in Detroit this Sunday after putting up 54 points against the Chiefs in their last outing, but the scoring outburst was mostly due to 5 Kansas City turnovers and Los Angeles clearly misses Cooper Kupp. Jared Goff’s 7.0 yards per pass play in the Monday night shootout was actually his 3rd-lowest mark of the season and Josh Reynolds is gaining just 1.44 yards per route run in 3 games so far filling in for Kupp, who was averaging 2.27 yards per route run before his season-ending knee injury. Still, I expect Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods to have productive afternoons as the Lions surrender a league-high 10.5 yards per target to opposing wide receivers with All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay in the middle of a down-year, allowing 1.13 yards per cover snap (40th).
Ezekiel Ansah has been terrific in limited action for Detroit’s defense this season recording 4 sacks and 15 total pressures from just 76 pass rushes, which would be the highest pass rushing efficiency in the league if he qualified, but I expect him to be neutralized by All-Pro left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Furthermore, the right side of the Los Angeles offensive line, Austin Blythe and Rob Havenstein, hasn’t been penalized in a whopping 1,502 combined snaps this season and Jared Goff should have plenty of time in the pocket.
Lions’ RB Kerryon Johnson is likely to return providing a boost to Detroit’s offense as his 44% rush success rate is nearly 10 percentage points above the rest of the Lions running backs combined. The Rams rush defense ranks 29th and Johnson should be successful on the ground for as long as Detroit can keep this game close. Fellow Lions running back Theo Riddick has taken over the underneath routes with the 2nd-most targets on the team since Golden Tate was traded, but the Rams concede just 4.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (2nd-fewest) and I expect Riddick to be bottled-up out of the backfield.
Aqib Talib’s likely return will be a massive boost for the Rams defense as they surrendered 7.3 yards per pass play without their top cornerback in the lineup compared to just 5.9 yards per pass play in the first 3 weeks.
Our model makes the Rams a 10.8-point road favorite but NFL double-digit road favorites that are coming off a home win are just 30-69-2 ATS and I can certainly see this game being a flat spot for the Rams, even with having last week off (that situation is 4-7 ATS if the road favorite is off a bye week). I’ll pass at -10 but would lean slightly with the Rams at -9.5 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.1
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.8%
45.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.9%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
48.9%
-
NYPP
8.1
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
24.7
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
15.8%
18.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.2%
49.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.5%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
60.3
-
Early Down Succ
55.8%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
51.7%
47.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
49.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
29.9
-
Run Ratio
43.6%
41.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
26.4
-
Game Control
3.9
-3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.9
32.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
53.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.8%
8.8%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.9%
21.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.6%
38.3%
-
NYPP
6.3
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.0
26.0
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.2%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.0%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
58.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
51.3%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
49.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.3%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
29.8
-
Run Ratio
40.6%
44.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
27.5
-
Game Control
-1.7
1.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
55.6% /
56.5% |
3.7% /
17.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
54.2% /
52.8% |
49.2% /
51.6% |
39.3% /
39.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
35.9% |
27.0 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% /
21.4% |
5.9% /
3.6% |
3.1% /
3.7% |
10.1 /
3.0 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
3.6 |
67 /
43 |
59.2% /
23.3% |
56.7% /
25.6% |
51.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.9% |
39.1 /
19.0 |
| 3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% /
40.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
6.7 |
62.2% /
60.0% |
10.8% /
30.0% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
74 /
52 |
62.7% /
45.9% |
60.8% /
48.1% |
45.5% /
62.9% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
3.8% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
22.8 /
26.6 |
| 4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% /
51.9% |
2.9% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
7.3 |
57.1% /
35.3% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
71 |
68.1% /
45.3% |
58.9% /
47.9% |
55.7% /
38.8% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
23.9% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% /
60.0% |
4.2% /
13.3% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
12.2 |
40.6% /
53.1% |
15.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
56 /
47 |
56.9% /
44.2% |
58.9% /
55.3% |
49.1% /
66.5% |
8.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
68.1% |
33.7 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% /
48.8% |
15.2% /
4.7% |
3.6% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
6.9 |
68.3% /
33.3% |
2.4% /
16.7% |
6.6 /
3.4 |
74 /
61 |
55.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
44.3% |
53.8% /
48.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
29.5% |
28.5 /
27.0 |
| 7 |
@SF |
39 – 10 W |
16.0 |
53.8% /
29.4% |
7.7% /
20.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.1 /
3.6 |
57.9% /
62.5% |
10.5% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
58 |
67.4% /
47.8% |
56.3% /
43.1% |
37.1% /
68.9% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
59.4% /
41.4% |
40.8 /
26.7 |
| 8 |
GB |
29 – 27 W |
-2.6 |
43.9% /
45.5% |
12.2% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
28.6% /
21.1% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
76 /
52 |
43.6% /
58.1% |
43.4% /
51.9% |
51.3% /
69.4% |
5.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
46.1% /
36.5% |
31.7 /
21.1 |
| 9 |
@NO |
35 – 45 L |
-6.9 |
55.0% /
58.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
9.6 |
36.8% /
44.4% |
21.1% /
11.1% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
59 /
72 |
53.1% /
51.9% |
49.2% /
51.4% |
48.0% /
36.6% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
32.2% /
50.0% |
30.0 /
31.4 |
| 10 |
SEA |
36 – 31 W |
0.6 |
53.7% /
48.3% |
4.9% /
13.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
70.8% /
64.7% |
8.3% /
14.7% |
6.3 /
8.0 |
65 /
63 |
65.4% /
64.2% |
60.0% /
57.1% |
36.7% /
66.7% |
7.0 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
36.9% /
54.0% |
30.2 /
24.1 |
| 11 |
KC |
54 – 51 W |
4.5 |
46.3% /
59.2% |
9.3% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
7.0 /
9.1 |
39.1% /
45.0% |
21.7% /
5.0% |
3.4 /
4.9 |
77 /
69 |
48.3% /
55.2% |
44.2% /
55.1% |
49.2% /
57.7% |
5.9 /
7.9 |
2.6% /
2.9% |
29.9% /
29.0% |
26.0 /
27.5 |
| 13 |
@DET |
30 – 16 W |
4.6 |
42.9% /
39.5% |
5.7% /
10.5% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
45.2% /
46.2% |
12.9% /
30.8% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
66 /
64 |
47.1% /
48.1% |
43.9% /
42.2% |
38.7% /
46.8% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
47.0% /
40.6% |
32.0 /
25.7 |
| 14 |
@CHI |
6 – 15 L |
-2.4 |
35.4% /
38.7% |
6.3% /
3.2% |
8.9% /
10.0% |
3.4 /
3.2 |
53.8% /
43.2% |
30.8% /
8.1% |
4.0 /
5.3 |
61 /
68 |
43.5% /
42.9% |
39.3% /
41.2% |
28.0% /
38.2% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.3% /
54.4% |
29.1 /
36.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
37.5% /
32.6% |
25.0% /
9.3% |
2.5 /
4.0 |
68 /
66 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
42.6% /
43.9% |
37.9% /
55.1% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
23.5% /
65.2% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
5.6% /
24.1% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
73 /
61 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
49.2% |
38.4% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
47.5% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
61.1% /
42.9% |
2.8% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
69 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
53.6% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
53 /
66 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.0% |
64.1% /
51.6% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
54.5% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 23 W |
13.9 |
52.9% /
80.6% |
17.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.0 /
11.8 |
34.5% /
52.4% |
27.6% /
9.5% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
46 /
57 |
32.6% /
55.6% |
41.3% /
70.2% |
37.7% /
41.2% |
5.8 /
9.2 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
63.0% /
36.8% |
46.1 /
20.5 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
32 – 21 W |
8.1 |
60.9% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
6.1 |
54.1% /
47.4% |
21.6% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
60 /
54 |
66.0% /
46.5% |
56.7% /
48.1% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
7.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.7% /
35.2% |
23.0 /
25.2 |
| 8 |
SEA |
14 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
55.8% /
57.9% |
7.0% /
10.5% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
12.5 |
30.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
23.8% |
2.6 /
4.2 |
56 /
61 |
47.8% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
52.5% |
26.0% /
48.7% |
5.9 /
6.8 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
68.9% |
15.0 /
25.8 |
| 9 |
@MIN |
9 – 24 L |
-8.8 |
39.1% /
56.5% |
21.7% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
3.1 /
6.7 |
40.0% /
43.5% |
16.0% /
26.1% |
2.7 /
5.6 |
71 /
46 |
41.2% /
51.4% |
39.4% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
41.0% |
3.0 /
6.2 |
1.4% /
2.2% |
35.2% /
50.0% |
21.7 /
32.6 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
22 – 34 L |
-15.7 |
43.8% /
58.1% |
12.5% /
3.2% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
31.8% |
29.2% /
36.4% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
72 /
53 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
47.2% /
47.2% |
25.9% /
66.7% |
4.2 /
7.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
41.5% |
28.8 /
33.4 |
| 11 |
CAR |
20 – 19 W |
1.3 |
39.5% /
53.7% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.7 /
8.1 |
34.5% /
56.3% |
31.0% /
18.8% |
3.3 /
3.5 |
67 /
57 |
42.0% /
56.5% |
37.3% /
54.4% |
37.9% /
51.4% |
4.6 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
28.1% |
31.9 /
16.4 |
| 12 |
CHI |
16 – 23 L |
-0.5 |
47.5% /
50.0% |
5.0% /
9.5% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
58.3% /
31.3% |
4.2% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
2.4 |
64 /
58 |
56.3% /
51.1% |
51.6% /
44.8% |
27.9% /
24.5% |
5.2 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.5% /
27.6% |
27.1 /
27.2 |
| 13 |
LA |
16 – 30 L |
-4.6 |
39.5% /
42.9% |
10.5% /
5.7% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
46.2% /
45.2% |
30.8% /
12.9% |
3.9 /
4.9 |
64 /
66 |
48.1% /
47.1% |
42.2% /
43.9% |
46.8% /
38.7% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
40.6% /
47.0% |
25.7 /
32.0 |
| 14 |
@ARI |
17 – 3 W |
4.3 |
33.3% /
40.9% |
4.2% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
41.9% /
19.0% |
32.3% /
33.3% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
55 /
65 |
39.5% /
33.3% |
38.2% /
33.8% |
18.3% /
7.2% |
4.0 /
4.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
56.4% /
32.3% |
25.4 /
23.2 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
Detroit Lions